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USD/BRL: Trend?

Published 05/06/2017, 07:55
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32

USDBRL

When I wrote 'I have placed an 'X' on the Daily Chart above as a precautionary measure just in case the market rallies as that could be a potential target for the possible double bottom on the upside - it is at about 3.3425 area & well above the key 50% Fib at 3.2728.', I did not expect the target to be achieved in one day. Nor did I expect the market to spear right through the centre of the 'X'...it was pure serendipity I assure you. Anyway, now that we have that out of the way, looking forward, I am concerned by the somewhat lack of ambition of the market to move away from the current 50% Fib at 3.2474...it is seemingly key at the moment. Two weeks ago after the huge rise and then partial pullback the market rested on this 50% Fib.

Last week it broke down through it but has still not managed to have consecutive closes underneath as the first real band of support 3.2093 - 3.2233 kicked in. This support in addition to a slightly longer term 50% Fib (3.2233) has also the Long MA (currently 3.2121). The lagging indicators have three out of four MAs pointing up...but we are close to the Long MA and I'm cautious about those...it may be potent support. Bearing all this in mind, I'm minded to leave the bullet point above in Neutral and wait and see how things work out with the 50% Fibs and Long MA.

Support is currently at 3.2233, 3.2174, 3.2121 (dynamic), 3.2093, 3.1929 (dynamic), 3.1795, 3.1401 and 3.0861.

Resistance is currently at 3.2474, 3.3671, 3.2728, 3.2855, 3.2985, 3.3282 and 3.3450.

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