Monday 26th August
Tuesday 27th August
Wednesday 28th August
Thursday 29th August
Friday 30th August
We’ll know the outcome from the Jackson Hole Symposium
Ultimately it appears that Powell’s speech on Friday (ie later today) is the main attraction. Traders are feverishly trying to decipher whether the 25 bps cut really was just a ‘mid cycle adjustment’, or there’s further easing to come. Yet the outcome of the talks could well spill over to next week, which could make early Monday trading more interesting than usual. Particularly if Powell is more dovish on the economy, given the latest set of tariffs.
G7 Summit comes to a close
The summit takes place between Saturday and Monday, with the final two days providing closing statements from central bank heads and key figures.
US GDP, 2nd Estimate: USD pairs, US Indices
GDP for the second quarter grew at 2.1%, not quite as slow as had been feared. Consumer spending jumped at its fastest rate since Q4 2017 (up from 1.1% in Q1) although business investment contracted by 0.6%, its first negative print since Q1 2016. If we’re to see GDP revised lower, it could weigh on UD sentiment as calls for Fed to act sooner would be in the rise again.
German IFO Business Sentiment: Euro crosses, DAX
Most indications for Germany are pointing towards a recession, and the IFO reads pull no punches on this. The current conditions index has weakened for four consecutive months, with July’s data contracting (pessimism) for the first time since May 2016. Yet this was to be expected, given the IFO climate index has contracted since March, is at its weakest since 2013 and IFO expectations are their lowest since 2019 (having nose dived for the past 12 months).
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