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The Outlier

Published 20/12/2019, 09:27

Initial jobless claims, a more than decent recession indicator, are flashing orange. Jobless claims last week came in worse than expected, after spiking to their highest level since September 2017 the week before.

While seasonal factors are at play here, the trend in initial jobless claims has been up in recent months. This contrasts with signals from other recession indicators such as the yield curve, building permits and consumer confidence, which do not point to a recession anytime soon. Hence, the development of initial jobless claims is something to keep an eye on, as it is one of the few outliers suggesting a downturn could be near.

US Initial Jobless Claims

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