Sugar: When last I reviewed the daily chart above two months ago, I wrote
We’re now testing down to the combination of the target for the Rounded Top of around 19.00 plus the rapidly ascending Long MA (currently 18.93). Two consecutive closes below that and with all other MAs side-lining or heading down, it will mean we are turning Bearish. Ominously, the whole 21st Century 50% Fib is at 18.09…not too far away.
The resultant move made me realise that when Tom DeMark said to me personally ‘…look at the Absolute Fibs…go from zero…’ then he was a far wiser analyst than I will ever be. Here I am just standing on the shoulder of this giant of TA as the 21st century 50% absolute Fib at 18.09 was the target for the move lower – not having two consecutive closes underneath – despite temporary support from the Long MA. By the way, if I am making Tom sound like Obi Wan…that’s because he is.
Anyway, after the decline and failure to have two consecutive closes below 18.09, prices rose and ran up to the recently created 50% Fib at 20.87 combined with the Medium MA (currently 20.96) and there they dawdled for most of Jan between these levels and the 61.8% Fib at 20.16. This dawdling has potentially created a bullish halfway hesitation with a possible target around 23.15 and is the level marked by an ‘X’ on the daily chart above. The first phase has been done…just about – the forming of the HH.
The second phase could be starting as early as Monday as we’ve had our first close above the Medium MA/20.87 Fib on Friday. We now need further closes above and thereby light any bullish intent fairly swiftly. Why swiftly? Well because on other timeframe charts we just have indecision. It’s on the monthly chart whilst on the weekly chart we had three weeks ago a key reversal down with no follow through the following week (perhaps indicative of a lack of interest to head lower) which was then followed by a KR up this past week.
Support is currently at 20.96(dynamic) – 20.87, 20.16, 20.05, 19.92(dynamic), 19.41(dynamic), 18.68(combo), 18.09 and 17.84.
Resistance is currently at 21.18, 21.38 – 21.40, 21.58, 21.90, 22.35(combo), 21.57 – 21.73. MAs are one up, one down and two flatlining – despite this I am tempted because we closed above all the MAs to go mildly bullish on the bullet point above.
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