Sugar
Last month I wrote:
The market produced an impressive Key Reversal Down last Friday, back below...the Medium MA (currently 12.28J. We are lower still today as we test the support of the Bearish Middle Tine Jan 2011 - Oct 2016 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 12.07J. I'm not overly concerned about closing above or below this Tine. However, it is talismanic in determining the angle of the market and the angle has been Bearish for a while. So that failure to maintain a pose over this Tine would likely mean a possible test of the very recent 50% Fib at 11.83. That then threatens this whole rise we've seen from mid/late Apr.'
The market did indeed move lower after my Review and we tested 11.83. However, we failed to close consecutively below the very recent 50% Fib at 11.83 throughout all of Jun. Meanwhile, we'd also received pressure from the topside as the Medium MA continued to press down on the market and drive us to narrower and narrower ranges... until last Friday! Just before changeover and with ranges narrowing, the market took the opportunity to form a Weekly Key Reversal Down late last week.
This no doubt influenced the action this past Monday when we had a huge Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart. Not only was it a KR Down but we also had the lowest close for a month or so under the key very recent 50% Fib level at 11.83.
So what now? Well, we need a second consecutive close under the 11.83 level...which seems likely. If that's the case then we've got to look at the May lows around 11.27 - 11.12 as the next levels and then the lows at 10.78 and 10.69. It may be pre-emptive, but for the first time in a while, it looks like the initial Long Term Bear Flag Target I'd designated 'X' in the 8.35 area at the beginning of this year. It is doable...and perhaps sooner than expected. Only consecutive closes over the Medium MA would put us back into Neutral whilst over the Long MA...however unlikely it may seem at this time...would move us into Bullish. So with all this and also all MAs pointing down, I've decided to remove the question mark on the bullet point above and go fully Bearish.
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