Last month I was tempted to push the bullet point for Sugar into neutral because at the time it looked like it had some unfinished business with the Gap below the market during the Sep – Oct contract changeover.
However, it has since seemingly resolved this though without the need to fall lower and is gradually grinding higher. ‘Grinding’ being the operative word, as prices move up in an apparent Bullish Wedge Pattern during Nov. It is noteworthy that every significant escalation of price is immediately batted down and effectively making the Short MA (currently 15.06) a type of dynamic ascending support as well as the new Uptrend created during Nov (currently 14.95). Please note that rallies on the 3rd, 24th of Nov and the 4th of Dec, the highs which form the Upper Wedge Trendline have been beaten down with (in order) a Long Black Marubozo, a Key Reversal Down and a One Day Reversal/Bearish Harami/possible Bearish Shooting Star Pattern. It is a reluctant move higher that is perhaps moving to a cusp during late Dec.
Part of the reason is the May 2014-to-date Downtrend (currently 15.51) which though breached and closed over has not as yet had two consecutive closes over and is therefore still operational as significant resistance. Part may be that we are indeed working through a Bullish Wedge as part of a Halfway Hesitation, in which cast the 2nd part – the Leg Up – will possibly see targets of anywhere from 17.00, 17.60, 17.90 or even 18.20 (depending how thick your crayon is…) areas.
It can, of course, also completely fail and break down as it turns into a topping action, perhaps a Triple Top or similar, in which case after the immediate Uptrend (currently 14.95) we could be testing the Jan low support at 14.07 before moving down to test the Long MA (currently 12.64). On balance, the recent higher highs & higher lows suggest keeping a mildly bullish bullet point but in the meantime, support is at 15.25, 14.95 (dynamic), 14.73, 14.66, 14.47, 14.07 & 13.83. Resistance is at 15.51 (dynamic), 15.91 (dynamic), 16.16, 16.44, 17.20 & 18.09.
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