US stocks finished higher and Asian markets followed suit as US – China trade talks restart. Despite concerns over the health of the global economy lingering, the S&P closed 0.4% higher and is on track for its strongest Q1 performance since 1998, up 12.3%. Riskier assets are being well supported right now by the prospect of a more accommodative Fed and by improved prospects for an end to the ongoing trade dispute.
As US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are in Beijing for a two day meeting with negotiators, hopes of progress in trade negotiations are lifting sentiment. Reports that China made unprecedented offers regarding technology transfers, in addition to other sticking points is adding to optimism that both negotiating teams are on the right track. US economic advisor Larry Kudlow advised that the talks may last some time. This could have hit the markets in a negative capacity. However, his suggestion that some tariffs on Chinese imports could be removed sweetened the blow immensely.
Oil recovers from Trump sell off
Oil was rebounding on Friday from a Trump inspired sell off in the previous session. Trump meddling with the price of oil is nothing new, but still has an impact. Crude dipped to a low of $58.20 on Thursday following a tweet from Trump that OPEC should increase oil production. Today the price was heading back towards $60.00.
Oil is on track for its best quarter since 2009, thanks largely to the continuing OPEC+ production cuts. Sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela have also meant tighter supply, aiding the surge in the price of oil. OPEC will decide at a meeting in June whether to extend the productions cuts. Saudi Arabia are keen to do so. Russia are more reluctant, instead eyeing September as a potential end date. This and the weaker global growth hitting demand are the big risks which oil prices face in the second half of the year.
Brexit Update
The pound was picking up ahead of another day of action in Westminster. Theresa May will bring her Brexit deal to the House for a third vote- well at least a partial vote on the withdrawal agreement. At the cost of stepping down as PM, Theresa May has won over the support of Eurosceptics Boris Jonson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. However, the DUP aren’t playing ball meaning it is still questionable as to whether Theresa May’s deal makes it across the line. It seems May's fate rests on Brexit-supporting Labour MPs.
US PCE up next
The dollar is holding steady after hitting a three week high in the previous session, despite weaker than forecast GDP data. Today investors will be looking towards US PCE figures. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is expected to remain steady at 1.9%. Any signs of inflation weakening in line with slower growth could hit the dollar.
Opening calls
FTSE to open 27 points higher at 7261
DAX to open 58 points higher at 11485
CAC to open 25 points higher at 5321
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