x
0

Snap Election Rumours And Brexit Debates To Start The Week

By Jeremy CookMarket OverviewMar 20, 2017 09:43
uk.investing.com/analysis/snap-election-rumours-and-brexit-debates-to-start-the-week-200179435
Snap Election Rumours And Brexit Debates To Start The Week
By Jeremy Cook   |  Mar 20, 2017 09:43
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Trade in danger following G20

The highlight of a quiet weekend was the meeting of G20 finance ministers, coming head to head with the Trump administration, mostly, for the first time. The communique that is typically published as an eager show of conciliatory détente was present although a line that had promised to “resist all forms of protectionism” was absent. The change in the tone of the communique therefore suggests that while the overall plans of the Trump team still remain largely unknown, pledges from the campaign on China, Mexico, NAFTA and a border tax will rear their heads soon.

The dollar has spent the Asian session on its heels and this is the 4th consecutive day of declines; weakness following the Fed was expected but a strong euro following the Dutch elections and the rapid dissipation of that near-term political risk as well as some comments by European policymakers over the chance of rate hikes soon have kept EUR/USD high.

The dollar still looks tired in our eyes and while we are of the belief that there is more upside to come from the greenback it is now relying on weakness elsewhere as much as strength at home to obtain it. Further moves on tax policy and fewer tales of chaotic wrangling of the budget or health care bill would help settle some of the political sentiment. The vote on the health care bill on Thursday could easily hammer the USD should Democrats and blue Republicans manage to spoil the party.

Surely not…

Political sentiment has basically run sterling for the past year with economic data occasionally adding a splash of fact. The weekend’s news suggests that we are no closer to having a date wherein Article 50 will be triggered but friends within the Westminster bubble are still thinking Monday 27th as the most likely date. Today sees Theresa May begin a tour of the UK to try and keep Britain together amid calls for another Scottish referendum and ahead of the Brexit negotiations. I am looking forward to seeing what is written on the side of any buses that she is using.

There are also persistent rumours in the press this morning that the Conservatives are planning an election for May 4th. A snap election may be just enough to push me over the edge but sterling movements would depend on whether any Article 50 negotiations are therefore postponed until after the election.

The highlight of the week for sterling is once again the latest inflation numbers that are due tomorrow. Finally the market consensus has joined us in believing that the rate of inflation as measured by CPI will rise above the 2% target this month. Even if you trust the official numbers, which we have misgivings over, real wage gains are now down to a slither.

French debate tonight

Tonight we see the first French Presidential debate with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Benoît Hamon, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon and Marine Le Pen taking to the stage. The debate kicks off at 8pm GMT.

Elsewhere the calendar is pretty quiet.

Snap Election Rumours And Brexit Debates To Start The Week
 

Related Articles

Snap Election Rumours And Brexit Debates To Start The Week

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Post 1000
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Post 1000
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
 
 
 
Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add Chart to Comment
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.