One Last Heave With Brexit Vote 3.0?

Having seen her deal fall for a second time earlier this week, by 149 votes most people could have been forgiven for thinking the Prime Minister’s deal was pretty much dead.

We’ve been here before though as earlier this year, on the 15th January, when it was smacked out of sight by over 200 votes. Once again, in light of this evening's events it would appear that reports of the deal's demise once again look like being premature, as rather than being declared dead on the mortuary slab again it appears to have twitched back to life.

This evening's events in Parliament look set to see the Prime Minister go for one last heave, as having avoided seeing Parliament wrest control of the Brexit process, this evening’s vote to ask for an extension until the 30th June, and in the event of another failure, for another one off longer extension was passed by 210 votes, 412-202.

This means we look set to return next week for another go at getting the Withdrawal Agreement passed, assuming that the Prime Minister can get the Democratic Unionists on board.

Even now this still seems a big ask as there appears to be enough Conservative party ultras who won’t accept the deal at any price, which means the next attempt to pass the deal could well fail too, albeit by a smaller amount.

Whatever happens it now seems unlikely that the UK will leave the EU on the 29th March, however that still remains the legal default, which means MPs may well have to swallow some unpleasant conditions that might be attached by the EU.

The pound's reaction has been pretty much as expected, given most of what transpired this evening was pretty much as expected, however we remain no clearer as to what MPs do want, after this evening's events.

Attention will now turn to the prospect of another so called meaningful vote on the Prime Ministers deal, which if it fails again will mean that the Prime Minister will have to go to the EU Council next week and throw herself on the mercy of the leaders of the EU27 and hope they are feeling generous.

Time to restock on the popcorn.

DISCLAIMER: CMC Markets is an execution only provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.

No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Original post