Plunging oil prices to five year-lows are ringing the alarm bells across European stock markets which are gunning for another lower open on Thursday ahead of key inflation report from Germany and France as well as the result of the ECB’s TLTRO program.
A weaker demand forecast from OPEC and a surprise increase in US crude inventories sent oil prices plunging with the WTI crude oil contracting falling as much as 4% on the day. The OPEC report was a reminder that it isn’t just higher supply driving oil prices lower; it is because of slowing global demand which doesn’t bode well for the world economy in 2015.
Overnight, Japan machinery orders, a leading indicator of business investment tanked by -6.4% in the month. Japanese stocks traded lower on the drop in machine orders since although the result probably increases chance of more QE if Abe is re-elected, for now the economy is stuck in a failing policy.
German consumer prices are expected to have remained flat in November while France could havce seen deflation of -0.1%.
The SNB is expected to leave rates unchanged but may try to jawbone the Swiss franc lower with talk of negative interest rates to alleviate some of the pressure on the EUR/CHF peg.
The British pound rallied on Wednesday after BOE governor Mark Carney said interest rates will have to rise despite the banks projection for sub-1% inflation if the economy is to rebalance.
The important result of the day will be the ECB’s TLTROs, the program is the ECB’s best attempt so far at increasing its balance sheet to its objective of 2012 levels at about 1tn euros. If the TLTRO program isn’t doing the job, corporate and government bond purchases may be needed.
EURUSD – Having dropped away from declining trendline resistance at 1.2450 after the 6th test, the euro rebounded and broke higher. As mentioned previously, the number of tests this trendline gives the break added significance and could see a significant rebound towards 1.26.
GBPUSD – The pound is now in the upper zone of its sideways range around prior resistance at 1.5735. The bias should still be with the longer term downtrend but the failure to push much below 1.56 may signal further upside potential toward 1.58.
EURGBP – The euro-sterling cross has been oscillating around 1.79 for the past five days. The longer term trend is down but higher lows off the 0.78 base suggest a potential test of 0.80.
USDJPY – The dollar-yen has moved lower through 118 which coincided with the 21 day moving average. A move through 117.24 the Nov 27 low would indicate the end of the uptrend and a likely move into sideways trading.
Equity market calls
FTSE100 is expected to open 20 points lower at 6,480
DAX is expected to open 37 points lower at 9,762
CAC 40 is expected to open 18 points lower at 4,209
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