As of Monday, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) grew its market cap by 186% over one year to $3.659 trillion. At the same time, Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) market cap rose moderately by 32% to $3.703 trillion. Although both tech companies outpaced the S&P 500 index (SPX), which grew by 25.4%, it is clear that the AI/GPU chip designer is a massive outlier.
The question is, will the rapid growth follow Nvidia in 2025 as well, firmly leaving behind Apple’s market cap dominance? Here are some indicators pointing to the affirmative answer.
Nvidia’s Momentum Likely to Continue
In the stock market, it is rare to see a company’s valuation growth be as exceptional as Nvidia’s. Not only did NVDA stock get a 2,346% boost over 5 years, but the company’s forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.97 doesn’t seem to deter investors from viewing it as overvalued.
And for a good reason. From the GPU dominance in the video gaming market, Nvidia seamlessly transitioned into a go-to AI chip provider for training large language models (LLMs). The company made it happen due to the unmatched H100 chip performance for AI workloads.
But this was only the first step. That edge was amplified by Nvidia’s comprehensive (full-stack) software framework, making it easier for developers to pick the Nvidia ecosystem, integrating hardware and software for the artificial intelligence potential.
And that potential is likely only to begin expanding in the text-to-video generation arena, which is poised to upend entire media/entertainment sectors.
Incredibly beneficial for Nvidia, AI-powered video generation is by far more compute-demanding, requiring new levels of cost-efficiency that Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips will meet. It is also likely that these types of services will attract subscription-based business models, further boosting demand for hyperscaling.
In the meantime, Nvidia is sure to extend its GPU dominance with the RTX 50 series, which was recently announced at CES 2025. At a time when AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) gave up its high-end GPU pursuit to focus on the mid-range market instead, Nvidia holds 90% discrete GPU market share, per Peddie Research data as of Q4 2024.
This is up from 81.5% in 2023. Although Intel’s new Battlemage GPU has been positively received as the cost-to-performance option, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is yet to make a meaningful dent in this market. Moreover, PC users are more likely to pick Nvidia due to its 4th gen deep learning super sampling (DLSS) tech present in the RTX 50 series, giving them a performance edge in gaming (if properly implemented).
For personal AI computing power, Nvidia’s offering is also unmatched. The GB10 Blackwell Superchip found its way into Project DIGITS, an AI desktop PC priced at $3,000 and expected to be available in May. The AI-focused computer purportedly offers 1 petaflop performance in AI workloads, making it a premiere solution for compute power needed for machine learning.
Apple’s Stock Buybacks Boosted by AI Features and Premium Branding
It is no secret that Apple has relied on massive share repurchases to make shareholders happy. But that is no substitute for innovation and market expansion. Compared to Nvidia’s P/E of 34.97, Apple’s forward P/E is slightly lower at 32.89. It is clear that Nvidia’s P/E relies on the AI boom, but how is Apple’s P/E justified?
According to Counterpoint data for Q3 2024 published in November ‘24, Apple’s worldwide smartphone market share is stagnant, oscillating between 16% and 17%. Having fallen from 23% in Q4 2023 due to Chinese competitors Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi, it is apparent that Apple needs an edge to make its bread & butter (smartphones) more enticing.
Could that edge be AI? The Siri platform is already there and ready to be upgraded with more features. These will be limited to only iPhone 16, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max, in addition to the new iPad Mini with its A17 Pro chip.
By March 2025, Apple should release iOS version 18.4, set to significantly expand Siri’s capabilities, giving users contextual and personalized performance governed by AI. Although this rollout is likely to boost the Apple brand, it is less likely that its ecosystem will expand significantly.
As of Q4 2024, Apple smartphone sales increased by 6% year-over-year, which could be amplified by the launch of the rumoured thinner iPhone 17 Air by the end of 2025. In other words, based on the sheer market cap momentum alone and still strong branding, Apple is also poised to reach $4 trillion. But this growth will likely be slower than Nvidia’s.
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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.
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