With one day to go until the Norges bank makes its final monetary policy decision of the year, the market is dumping the NOK. EURNOK has surged to a 5-year high and the NOK has also fallen to a 9-month low vs. the SEK. The sell-off started after some weak inflation data was released this morning.
While November CPI was only a notch weaker at 1.9% YoY, there was a shock decline for producer prices, which fell 2.8% on the month, pushing the annual rate down to -6.6%, the largest decline for more than 5 years.
NOK gets hammered as oil continues to fall
The falling oil price is weighing on inflation, but since Norway is also a big oil producer, it is also weighing on Norway’s income. One fifth of Norwegian GDP is related to the oil and gas sector, and Norwegian oil fields have a breakeven price of approximately $80 per barrel, which means they are losing money as the price of Brent crude continues its decline.
While there have been signs that Norway’s economy has been weakening, the Norges Bank had been reluctant to cut rates as the inflation rate had remained above 2% this year. However, although the inflation picture is brighter in Norway compared to the rest of Europe, the sharp fall in producer prices in November suggests that downward pressure on CPI is starting to build, which could give the Norges bank the perfect excuse to cut rates on Thursday.
The market is not expecting a cut in rates tomorrow, however, the news on inflation is a game-changer and today’s sharp fall in the Nokkie suggests that the market may be recalibrating its view on action from the Norges Bank. We think that the Norges Bank may decide that oil prices have fallen far enough to justify a rate cut of 25 basis points, which would bring lending rates down to 1.25% from 1.50%.
There is a risk that the Bank may hold fire, however, its next meeting is not until March, and who knows what will happen to the oil price and the Norwegian economy by then…
FX view:
From a currency perspective, lower interest rates will narrow the rate differential Norway holds over its G7 peers, and we think the biggest decline going forward will be versus the USD, especially if the Fed ramps up its hawkish language at its meeting next week. If we get a break above 7.3145/50, the double top from 31st Dec 2008, this would be a bullish development for USDNOK that could trigger a move back towards 8.00.
The NOK is also vulnerable vs. the SEK. Although NOKSEK has fallen sharply in the last month, the low of the year so far at 1.0338 (the low from February) is a shining beacon for the bears.
A caveat to this would be if the Norges Bank remains on hold. This is not what the market expects with 24 hours to go before the decision, so we would expect a sharp bullish reversal for the Nokkie if this plays out.
Takeaway:
- The sharp drop in producer prices could give the Norges Bank an excuse to cut interest rates on Thursday.
- The drop in the oil price is starting to hit Norway’s economy.
- As this is the last Norges Bank meeting until March, the Bank may decide to strike now rather than wait 3 months when the economy could be in even worse shape.
- The NOK is vulnerable against the USD and SEK if we get a rate cut and a dovish tone from the Norges Bank on Thursday.
- If the Bank decides to hold fire then expect a sharp bullish reversal for the NOK.
- Overall, the NOK is vulnerable for as long as the oil price remains in free-fall (see chart below).
Figure 1:
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