Market's Risk-On Mode Could Be Premature

By MaiMarFX (Marios Krausse)CurrenciesMar 28, 2022 09:17

uk.investing.com/analysis/markets-riskon-mode-could-be-premature-200514251

Market's Risk-On Mode Could Be Premature

By MaiMarFX (Marios Krausse) | Mar 28, 2022 09:17

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Last trading week was none of our favorites since low volatility has left us with uncomfortably narrow trading ranges. This has led to some false price breakouts, particularly in the EUR/USD and DAX. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, we can see an increase in the market’s appetite for risk which was evident in the most liquid cryptocurrency pairs surging above recent resistance levels. However, while everybody hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine that would ease pressure on the market, the ‘risk on’ approach could be premature and dangerous.

The U.S. dollar has fallen even if the Federal Reserve follows the most aggressive monetary policy approach in over 20 years. The market is pricing in a 60 percent chance of a 50bps rate hike in May and 70 percent chance of another 50bps hike in June. Given the Fed’s hawkish lean, dollar bulls should keep an eye on USD crosses.

This week we will watch the PCE deflator on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.

EUR/USD – Testing the 1.0950-support
The euro seems to be primed for a dip towards 1.09, provided that 1.0950 breaks. We will then pay attention to a potential break below 1.0880 which could send the euro tumbling towards 1.07. Overall, as long as the euro remains below 1.1050, we favor a bearish bias. We have set our daily entries today at 1.1010 (long) and at 1.0940 (short).

EUR/USD D1

GBP/USD: The cable refrained from a climb above 1.33 and fell back towards 1.3140. For further bearish momentum towards 1.2950, we would need to see a sustained break below 1.3080.
We have set our daily entries today at 1.3190 (long) and at 1.3130 (short).

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

BOE

1.25%

Aug 04, 2022

ECB

0.00%

Jul 21, 2022

FED

1.75%

Jul 27, 2022

SNB

-0.25%

Sep 22, 2022

RBA

0.85%

Jul 05, 2022

BOC

1.50%

Jul 13, 2022

RBNZ

2.00%

Jul 13, 2022

BOJ

-0.10%

Jul 21, 2022

CBR

9.50%

Jul 22, 2022

RBI

4.90%

Aug 04, 2022

PBOC

3.70%

BCB

13.25%

Aug 03, 2022

FTSE 100	7,208.81	+188.36	+2.68%
DAX	13,118.13	+205.54	+1.59%
Euro Stoxx 50	3,533.17	+96.88	+2.82%
US 30	31,487.3	+809.9	+2.64%
US 500	3,909.1	+113.4	+2.99%
Nikkei 225	26,491.97	+320.72	+1.23%
GBP Index	73.38	+0.03	+0.04%

Brent Oil	113.19	+3.14	+2.85%
Crude Oil WTI	107.06	+2.79	+2.68%
Gold	1,828.10	-1.70	-0.09%
Silver	21.130	+0.088	+0.42%
Copper	3.7365	-0.0025	-0.07%
London Cocoa	1,754.00	-2.00	-0.11%
London Wheat	257.75	-7.75	-2.92%

GBP/USD	1.2272	+0.0012	+0.10%
EUR/USD	1.0554	+0.0031	+0.29%
USD/JPY	135.23	+0.29	+0.22%
EUR/GBP	0.8600	+0.0019	+0.22%
USD/CAD	1.2891	-0.0103	-0.79%
GBP/JPY	165.85	+0.43	+0.26%
AUD/USD	0.6944	+0.0055	+0.80%

Lloyds Banking	43.40	+1.09	+2.56%
Vodafone Group PLC	126.50	0.00	0.00%
Barclays	158.94	+4.86	+3.15%
BT Group	188.50	+3.35	+1.81%
HSBC	537.30	+10.70	+2.03%
BHP Billiton Ltd	2,275.50	+37.50	+1.68%
Exxon Mobil	86.90	+1.69	+1.98%

Market's Risk-On Mode Could Be Premature

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