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Liberal Democrats Betting Market Continues To Collapse

Published 19/05/2017, 11:40
Updated 14/05/2017, 11:45
  • The Lib Dem's collapse is the kind you see when a company issues a second profit warning
  • On 25 April, Lib Dems were forecast to get 30 seats
  • Before yesterday's TV debate our quote dropped to 16 seats
  • Lib Dems are now forecast to only get 14 seats (just 5 more than they currently have in parliament)
  • Chart below shows the collapse in the betting market

The Liberal Democrats are not having a good UK election campaign and this is borne out in the spread betting markets.

Tim Farron's party only have 9 seats in parliament and, when the election was announced, they were expected to do well on the back of both the Labour party collapse and being the only 'Remain' party.

On 25 April, our market for the number of Lib Dem seats was at 29 - 31 i.e. suggesting they would win 30 seats at the General Election.

This quote has now more than halved.

The Lib Dem's collapse is the kind you see when a company issues a second profit warning.

Before yesterday's TV debate that quote dropped to 15 - 17 seats.

After the debate the market dropped another 2 seats to 13 - 15 i.e. suggesting the Lib Dems will only get 14 seats. That's just 5 seats more than their 2015 election debacle.


Conservative party looking comfortable

Despite the Conservative party manifesto getting mixed reviews, they are still well out in front and holding relatively steady with a quote of 392.5 - 396.5 seats. (Suggesting they'll win about 394 seats.)


Labour party bounces back

It's the Labour party that seem to be reaping the rewards of the Lib Dem collapse.

After a poor showing at the local elections on 5 May, the Labour party seats market fell to 152 - 156.

Jeremy Corbyn's party has now bounced back to 170 - 174. (Suggesting they'll win about 172 seats.)


UKIP steady at 0 seats

The UKIP seats market at 0.02 - 0.3 remains unchanged and continues to suggest they won't be getting another MP any time soon.

Liberal Democrat collapse

Lib Dem Seats

UK Election Spread Betting Markets Table

Above: FinancialSpreads.com prices as of 10:00am, 19 May 2017

UK Election Spread Betting Markets: Screenshot

Financial Spreads UK Election Market-2017

Above: FinancialSpreads.com prices as of 10:00am, 19 May 2017.

Disclaimer: Spread betting, CFDs and margined forex trading are leveraged products which carry a high level of risk to your capital. You can lose more than your initial deposit so you should ensure spread betting, CFDs and margined forex meet your investment objectives and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

by Adam Jepsen

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