John Eade, President of Argus Research, joined Tip TV to discuss the US economy, and the current trends in Gold and Oil.
Second quarter GDP figures heating up US market
Eade started by noting the rising temperature in the US economy, with the earnings, M&A, the FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP figures all being released in the near future. He elaborated on the importance of the Q2 GDP figures, with the previous quarter being less successful. Eade believes that the US exports are being crushed by the high dollar, with spending also being lower. He finished by adding his view that the rate hike in the US will occur in September or October, but it will take 2 to 3 years before the Fed will raise the rates enough until a point where the US economy will slow down, meaning there is 12 to 18 months of bull market ahead.
Near equilibrium at $1000 for Gold
Eade commented that gold falling to $800 would signal a global deflationary environment, but he believes that the $1000 level is the equilibrium, with the range varying from 1000-1300.
Fair value for WTI around $55-$65
Eade begins by noting the lower oil prices which the oversupply earlier in the year drove prices to the $40’s. He adds it recovered to $60 before falling to the current level of around $50 due to the concerns over China. Chinese GDP is trending lower, and Eade expresses that it is hard to know what the real growth value is, but per capita, it is clear that growth and living standards are still low. He finished by commenting that he doubts oil will fall below $40, but if it does, it is a trading opportunity, yet he remains assured that the fair value is likely around the $55-$65 mark.