The JPMorgan (N:JPM) Global PMI rose for a second month in November to a level just above the average seen in the year to date. The survey is broadly consistent with annual global GDP growth of just over 2%. The global upturn continued to be led by services, but perhaps the most welcome news was a further revival in manufacturing growth from the near-stalling seen in September and pointing to recovering trade flows.
Global PMI and economic growth
Manufacturing vs Services
Broad-based developed world growth
Growth accelerated to a three-month high in the developed world. The rise in the PMI brought the surveys in line with GDP growth of just under 2%, so remaining below the 2-2.5% annual growth rate that is widely considered to be a sustainable long term trend for developed economies. However, all four largest developed world economies enjoyed sustained solid or accelerating growth in November.
Developed markets
Four largest DM economies
Emerging markets see first expansion since July
The emerging market PMI edged above 50 to register the first expansion of business activity since July. However, the survey data remain indicative of only 4% annual GDP growth, therefore remaining well below (more than half) the rate of expansion seen prior to the global financial crisis. Signs of stabilisation in China and Russia contrasted with a near stalling of growth in India and an ongoing steep decline in Brazil.
Emerging markets
Four largest EM economies
Use the download link below to access a full overview of the November PMI surveys, including details of all major economies, policy implications and the market impact.
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