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Full Steam Ahead for USD/BRL

Published 07/09/2015, 13:06
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32
USD/BRL
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USDBRL Daily Chart

At the start of this summer I was minded to put USD/BRL into full bullish and was concerned that perhaps I would regret it…

I guess I needn’t have worried. The potential Ascending Triangle I noted in the past turned out to be just that and prices moved up smartly to test and hold nicely just below the May 2003 high resistance this past early Aug. I suggested at the time that perhaps this was now forming a Double Top as prices trended sideways but I was grateful to a reader of mine to suggest that perhaps instead of that, it was becoming a Bull Flag – and that is what happened.

All this has turned the action in Aug on the Monthly Chart to a Bullish Long White Marubozo and the 3rd consecutive Bullish White Soldier on the same chart. In fact two out of the last three months on the Monthly Charts have been Bullish Long White Marubozos. So where does that leave us?

Well the recent rally has meant we have run well up the 2nd Flagpole of the Bull Flag – the optimised target would be in the 3.8900 area & we are within 500 tics of that! Most recently we’ve had the first close last Friday over the 3.8138 – 3.8218 resistance and though it is only just the one close I feel currently obliged to treat it now as support.

Further support is at 3.8125 (dynamic), 3.6900, 3.6556, 3.6341 & 3.6247 (dynamic). Resistance is at 3.8502, 3.9107 (dynamic), 3.9664, 3.9794 & the very, very important 2002 high and actual all-time high in modern times of 4.0153. I will do projections further should we get beyond there but think it opportune to see the action running up to such a move higher. Bullet point is fully bullish and stays so!

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