Just like last time and so many other months before, the market is 'still keeping the ongoing action of moving lower within the Jan - Feb Schiff Pitchfork.'
This is still the theme though we did have an attempt significantly lower during the past month and outside the specified AP Pitchfork Tines. However, we did not have two consecutive closes below. The only feature which could have prompted that move was whether the nearby 38.2% Absolute Fib at 117.03 was any good but just a small move underneath seems to have been enough of a test for the moment. We've since moved higher and are now testing the combo of the Upper Tine of the AP and the April-to-date downtrend, both around 125.55.
It would be interesting to see if they manage to hold the move as the 50% Fib of the April move is nearby next resistance at 128.34 whilst the market has already managed to pull back over the very recent 50% Fib at 123.19. Finally, I forgot to mention the 'X' from last time, note the possible double top formation from the 15th until the end of the month. I have placed an 'X' on the chart about 121.50 where a potential target for this would be but I'm not contemplating further at this time. It was true that I did not at the time of writing anticipate further declines immediately such as the Bear Spike or possibly Pipe Bottom we saw two weeks ago but going forward, the previously mentioned Upper Tine and Downtrend are still key.
The market is still bearish as is the bullet point below and would only be contemplated as neutral with consecutive closes over the medium MA (currently 134.55) and bullish with consecutive closes over the long MA (currently 142.66). Keep an eye out for a serious attempt over the combo and then the 128.34 50% Fib.
Support is currently 123.19, 120.78, 119.20 (dynamic), 117.03, 112.97 (combo and dynamic), 111.04, 110.22 and then 105.52.
Resistance is currently at 124.71, 125.55 (combo and dynamic), 125.59, 128.34, 129.78, 131.97, 133.38 and 134.55 (dynamic).
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