The focus of traders today is the ECB's decision on rates, as well as a follow-up press conference at which ECB leaders are expected to clarify the situation with the prospect of the QE program. It is expected that the ECB will keep the interest rate at zero level, and the deposit rate will leave negative, at the level of -0.4%.
Also, investors believe that the ECB will announce a reduction in the monthly purchases of European government bonds, supposedly from 60 billion euros to 30 billion euros, and this will be the second reduction this year.
The ECB leadership has stated more than once that stimulation can be extended, for example, for nine months, as inflation in the euro area remains weak, below the target level of just under 2.0%.
Even if the ECB declares a reduction in purchases, then, given that rates remain at the same level, in general, the monetary policy of the central bank will remain soft.
Nevertheless, the ECB can and disappoint today buyers, both the euro and European stock assets, unless it announces when it plans to complete the asset purchase program, saying that it still does not exclude any options. On the other hand, the eurozone economy is strong enough to cope with a gradual change in policy. The economy of the eurozone can show the strongest annual growth since 2007, and the indicators of consumer sentiment reached the maximum marks for a decade.
Although inflation remains well below the ECB's target, the supply managers' indexes released this week showed that the employment growth rate in the eurozone peaked in ten years. This allows us to hope that wage growth will support still weak inflation.
Thus, buying risky assets of the European stock market still looks more promising than putting the euro on further growth.
The decision on the interest rate will be published at 11:45 (GMT), the press conference of the ECB will start at 12:30 (GMT).
Support and resistance levels
After active growth in September, the current month, the Euro Stoxx 50 index is trading in the range near the level of 3600.0.
The positive dynamics of the Euro Stoxx 50 index persists while it trades above support levels of 3455.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 3440.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth from July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0 and the bottom line of the upward trend channel on the weekly chart).
The signal to decline may be a breakdown of the support level of 3555.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 3625.0 (October highs) will create prerequisites for further growth with targets at the annual maximum levels near the 3680.0, 3820.0 (absolute highs of 2015 and the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of support levels 3455.0, 3440.0 will be a turning point in the development of the bullish trend, which began in June 2016. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 3295.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
Support levels: 3590.0, 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Resistance levels: 3625.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 3570.0. Stop-Loss 3630.0. Take-Profit 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0 Buy Stop 3630.0. Stop-Loss 3570.0. Take-Profit 3680.0, 3700.0, 3820.0
The presented material expresses the personal views of the author and is not a direct guide to conduct trading operations.