Today's Highlights
Bonds' sell-off
Oil Bounces
BoE Today!!
Please note: All data, figures and graphs are valid as of November 15th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.
Market Overview
The Trump trade was largely made up of the following positions: buy US dollar, sell Mexican peso, Buy USD/JPY, sell Treasury bonds, sell gold, and buy other metals.
Over the last 24 hours the momentum on all of these trends have slowed down to to a grind. Over the next 24 hours we'll see which of these trends are set to continue and which will be remarkably reversed.
Rates & Bonds
Expectations are ridiculously high that we'll get a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in about 30 days from now. The Bloomberg Implied Probability of a rate hike in December (green line) is at its highest level ever, quite near 100%...
So investors are certainly expecting interest rates to go up faster under Donald Trump. and with that they're also expecting government spending to increase bond yields.
You'll recall that over the last few months we've been discussing the problems with super low bond yields and even looking at many countries like Germany and Japan that are currently offering negative yielding bonds. So it seems that people are thinking Trump will be part of the solution here too.
In this chart we can see the Trump affect on the TLT on the eToro platform, which is the US 20 Year Bond ETF.
If you're considering a long term investment in government bonds, now could be a good time to get in. The price is relatively low and the yields are getting high.
Oil Bounce
If there's one market that has been trading completely independent of the US elections it's this one...
It seems that traders are more concerned with what OPEC is going to do than a yellow haired man. Speculation is high and there are major analysts calling for both deal and no deal.
Let's put that noise on the side though and think about this trade from the technical perspective. The overall range since April is $42.50 to $50 per barrel, with a $2.50 buffer on either side.
It seems every time we get low OPEC comes close to a deal and every time we get high, those talks seem to dissolve.
Here we can see the volumes in eToro over the last week. Our clients are either playing the range or the fundamentals adding to their long positions and cutting out the shorts.
Today
There are plenty of exciting economic events scheduled for today. We have several Fed speeches including Vice Chair Stanley Fischer. The Fed-speak may take a back seat though since we have Yellen coming up on Thursday and what she has to say will be far more important.
The big ticket item for today is the inflation report with Mark Carney. The BoE dropped a bombshell recently by announcing their inflation expectations at 2.7% over the course of 2017.
With these types of expectations they may need to act quickly by raising the interest rates, which are now at a historic low. Will they announce that today? Perhaps, or perhaps they may allude to it. Either way, watch the pound sterling today.
Also watch out for other events like the Retail Sales out from the US, GDP figures from Europe, and key NZD data later this evening.
Disclaimer: This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.