Absence of advance guidance leaves dealers to make up their own minds
The dollar, pound, euro and yen had mixed fortunes last week, each having to cope with various factors peculiar to them.
In the U.S., traders are infatuated by when the next rate hike will be. FOMC members were ambiguous in their views of the economy and since Janet Yellen wasn’t in the mood for speaking, advance guidance was sadly absent.
Of course, the U.K. triggered Brexit. Sterling did a little “volatility dance” and ended up pretty much where it started.
The euro suffered from a lower than expected set of inflation numbers that killed any possibility of the rate hike that was only going to happen in Wolfgang Schaeuble’s mind.
Japanese inflation grew a little (a large amount by Japanese standards) and the BoJ Tankan report revealed expectation of a dollar at an average of 108.50 during this financial year.
Music to the ears of President Trump!
Employment report ends week but plenty of data before that
Today sees the release of purchasing managers indexes in the Eurozone and U.S. Both have been in the mid 50’s and there is no reason for any radical change. The Eurozone data will be of particular interest to see if there is any sign of a future pickup in inflation.
We also have Eurozone unemployment and producer prices reported today. Again, future inflation guidance will be given by Producer Prices. A 9.5% - 9.8% rise Eurozone-wise will be of little comfort to those Spaniards and Greeks for whom the possibility of finding work is highly unlikely.
Over the next few days, we see the release of Services PMI in the Eurozone and U.S., U.S. trade (a favourite of the President), and factory orders. There is a rate decision in Australia and minutes from the U.S. and Eurozone Central banks.
This all culminates in the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The headline predicted to be around +180k. However the more significant number is the increase in hourly earning which has stayed, stubbornly, below 3%. This is what the Fed watches and given their propensity for saying they are driven by data, this could be what the market is waiting for!
The French Jaw Jaw has started in earnest
After a quiet couple of weeks, the French election sprang back into life this weekend with all the main candidates, as well as a few wacky ones, taking to the podium.
Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon are considered by many to be the same person with similar ideals and policies. M. Fillon who is favourite to fight the run-off called for a forward looking France taking it’s place as one of the leaders of the EU and Eurozone.
The favourite to fill the other berth at the run-off is right wing Front Nationale candidate Marine le Pen. She has pledged to take France out of the euro upon her election and hold a Frexit referendum. One of the left wing rivals commented this weekend that a “chair or a table” has more chance of being President that Mme Le Pen.
The concern over the number of undecided voters is worrying both Macron and Fillon. It remains to be seen how well Le Pen does in the April 23 ballot. She is slted to qualify for the runoff but lose 64 - 36 to M. Macron. There is plenty of mudslinging and insults to be had before that.