USD
The USD has continued to trade on the backfoot at the start of this week. The hotly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium lived up to expectations as a market moving event. As such, price action on the greenback is still being driven by Jay Powell’s comments that the ‘time has come’ for a change in interest rate policy. Markets have taken this to mean that the September meeting is the likely venue for the first in a succession of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. As a result, the USD is trading at its lowest level against its counterparts since 2023. With all market attention still on the Fed we will need to wait until the end of the week for any economic data of note; Thursday and Friday will provide employment data as well as inflation updates in the form of PCE Prices.
GBP
With USD on the backfoot and the BoE’s rate cut in the rear-view mirror, GBP has made significant upward gains. GBP has rallied to its strongest position against the dollar since the Q3 2023, up over 4% in 3 weeks, as well being close to year-to date highs against the Euro. With a very quiet GBP data calendar, GBP may well continue to trade on last week’s momentum.
EUR
With the ECB almost guaranteed to cut rates in September, data this week may provide a base case for events through Q4. The highlight of the week from a data perspective will be inflation and employment data from the Eurozone. With the market’s focus firmly on Central Bank policy signs of a continuation of the persistent core inflation we saw in July may push EURUSD to new highs.
CAD
Much like the ECB, the base case is for the BoC to cut rates in September. Whilst the next step in Canadian monetary policy is largely priced in, Canadian GDP on Friday may prove to provide some volatility. The market estimate for the annualized GDP figure is for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%.