Crude Oil Moving Away from Highs

On Monday, 10 October, the commodity market is responding to the external background. Brent is currently falling towards $96.95.
 
In the meantime, the oil sector offers an excellent situation for bulls. On one hand, OPEC+ agreed on cutting the production by 2 million bdp after all. On the other hand, there were technical signals, which allowed optimists to force investors out of short positions.
 
Last week, bulls had another factor to support them – the “greenback” was weakening. However, the American currency is currently reaching stability.
 
Last Friday’s report from Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the Oil Rig Count in the US dropped two units, down to 602. In August and September, the indicator barely moved upwards – in July, it was 595 units. Despite high energy prices, shale companies are in no hurry to increase their output, because they see serious risks of a recession.
 
In the H4 chart, after completing the ascending wave at 94.44 and then forming a new consolidation range around this level, Brent has broken it to the upside; right now, it is still growing with the short-term target at 103.30. Later, the market may correct down to 94.44 and then form one more descending structure to reach 105.50. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 and may later continue its growth to reach new highs.
 

 
As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the fifth structure of the ascending wave at 94.50 and then forming a new consolidation range there, Brent has broken it to the upside, Brent is extending this wave to reach the short-term target at 103.33. Later, the market may correct towards 94.55 and then resume growing to reach the first upside target at 105.50. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 20. Later, the line may move to break 50 and continue growing towards 80.
 

 
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