It is going to be an extremely busy week for the economic calendar next week as we head into a new a month. Key data from China, eurozone, UK and US will dominate the agenda, not to mention New Zealand or Canada. In addition, there will be two major central bank policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. On top of all this, there will be more corporate earnings to look forward, for example from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and HSBC (LON:HSBA). So, there will be something for everyone next week.
Today, there is the small matter of US GDP to consider. The world’s largest economy is expected to have expanded in the second quarter by an annualised rate of 2.5% compared to 1.4% in Q1. Given the recent US data weakness, there is a good possibility that GDP may also disappoint expectations. However, will it necessarily lead to a dollar sell-off? I think the markets will be content with a very small miss. But if it is a significant miss, then the dollar will likely head lower.
USD/JPY could turn higher, US data permitting
As I have mentioned in recent days, if the dollar were to make a recovery, its best bet will be against her weaker rivals such as the Swiss franc and possibly Japanese yen given the still-dovish SNB and BOJ. The USD/CHF has already moved sharply higher in recent days and now it could be the USD/JPY’s turn. A potential clean break above the 111.85-112.15 resistance area could trigger the rally. This area has been a sturdy support zone in the past and is now acting as resistance. It is likely that liquidity is resisting above this area: buy stops from the existing sellers and those from potential buyers. If the cluster of stop orders get triggered here later on today or early next week then the USD/JPY could head towards the 114s or 115s next.
However if key support in the 110.35-110.80 area breaks then all bets would be off for the bulls, at least in the short-term anyway. In this event, a return to the bottom of the old range would then become likely. However this is not our base case.
While the USD/JPY is stuck within the above-mentioned technical areas, I don’t have a strong view in terms of direction. But my gut feeling tells me the next move is likely to be higher. The good news is we will soon find out which group of market participants are in control as price will inevitably either break support or resistance. Until then, traders may take it from one level to the next, especially given the upcoming releases of high-impact macro data.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warrant that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, the author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does the author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.