Gold, silver prices slip; key economic data due this week
Corn
Last time we'd just started the current move down. We'd had a Key Reversal Down and a Bear Gap. I wrote at the time:
An obvious try on the downside would be the Medium MA (currently 388). It would be a relatively easy try given the action we've had and with closes below it would put us into Neutral from Bullish [...] We have a significant number of Fib supports between the Medium MA and the Long MA (currently 374/ They would erode all but the most determined of Bearish pressures.'
So you can see I was conservative (as usual) in outlook and anticipated that maybe the market would sojourn between the Medium and Long MAs. This idea lasted about a week by which time...the 18th of June...we'd had two consecutive closes below the Long MA, we'd broken down making new 2018 lows plus testing the Dec 2017 low at 347 and even threatening the Aug 2017 low at 344 because yesterday we'd made a Bearish Engulfing Pattern and a new 2018 low...though we've not followed further at this time.
Why have we started to halt around these levels? Is it because of the 2017 lows...not really. If you look at the bottom right of the Daily Chart above you can see the reason why...the huge 2006-to-date Uptrend (currently 334).
This is the reason why the market suddenly became cautious. It will be even more interesting compared to recent times as to what happens in the next few weeks. The market will be asked again...do you wish to try down to the Uptrend...or revert back up?
At this moment I suggest it may wish to probably have another attempt lower...maybe more than one attempt. We seem unlikely to wish to revert back up at this time...so it leaves us with the third option while we wait for what to do...perhaps go sideways.
Finally, I note the Dead Cross of the Short MA (currently 366) down through the Short/Medium MA (currently 389) plus the likely and key possible Dead Cross of the Short/Medium MA down through the Medium MA...that might be a signal to attempt lower and may happen late this week/ early next week. Finally...the bullet point above. I've decided that given how far down we are that we must at least move through Neutral to Mildly Bearish...after all, the Long MA has barely turned down at this time.
Disclaimer: ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No. 2547805 a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities.
These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. © 2014 ADM Investor Services International Limited 2014.