Corn: Trend?
Rarely do I look at something and notice one feature which I think sums up a market. I think in this Annual Review of FX and Commodities I've not seen anything that's gripped me as a concept, bullet point or anything...till now. May I draw your attention to one key feature in this Monthly Chart above, that is not hugely obvious on this scale but which is wholly significant. There is a huge Indecisive Doji Cross for the whole of 2017. A feature which as I noticed it - COB Dec 2016 at 352 and COB Dec 2017 at 350 % - I immediately felt it was right to place the market into Neutral. The move down has happened back in 2013 - 2014. We've since then traded sideways. However, that's not all - 2016 was also an Indecisive Doji Cross.
Two of these on an Annual Chart in succession is I think virtually unheard of in active commodities. So, despite the Fibs - the key recent 50% Fib at 370 %, despite the lows from 2007 onwards around 300 and despite the Absolute Fibs at 322 % (61.8%) and 421 % (50%), I am minded to view this as a balanced Neutral sideways market, a classis of the Third Way of Markets which has further emphasised by the accumulation of MAs within a narrow range bar the 5 Year MA. Consecutive closes below 300 or over 440 will likely pave the way of the next direction. I am just minded to suggest that we halted after the move down and exhibited Indecision thereafter. Therefore it might be likely (at the moment) that we try higher...maybe in a year or so...
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