BoE Rates today with 7454 support | 7547 resistance

So today it's the BoE and the possibility of a rate increase by as much as 0.5% to try to temper the persistently high inflation in the UK. While it's falling in the Eurozone and the US, it's remaining stubbornly high here. However, with the slowing of consumer spending it should follow though that less demand will help cool it too. Just seems to be taking a while. Mind you, up until a month or so ago, retail and hospitality (aka the pub!) was still seeing high traffic. That's really dropped off in the last month. 

Initially today we may well see some more downside towards the 7450 area and a test of S3. We have already broken S1 at 7515 and the round number of 7500 as I write this, and a slide down to test the bottom of the 10d Raff at 7466 seems to be playing out first thing. 

I would quite like to see S3 and the 10d Raff hold though for a climb back towards the daily pivot at 7547, maybe if the market thinks 0.5% and we actually get 0.25% we get a bit of a relief bounce. 

That may well tie in with the S&P500 dropping down to test the 4343 level and also bouncing as we have a longer term support at this level, as well as just above S2 (and the key fib here for good measure).

Below 7454 then it looks like the bears will try to drive it down towards the 7334 daily support level in time. That said, the usual pattern recently has been a weaker Monday to Wednesday and then a bit of bullishness on Thursday and Friday. If the lower supports - 7450, 4342 and 15762 on FTSE 100, S&P500 and Dax40 respectively - can hold today then we may well see a repeat of that pattern. 

I mentioned the seasonality earlier this week and the weaker end to June that statistically plays out before the bullishness in July. We seem to be fitting that too and on the longer term charts buying the dip is still viable. 

Above the 7547 level then the bulls would be looking to target the 7570 200ema on the 30m, and also the R1 level at 7576. Does feel a bit of a big ask with the negative news flow that we currently have (handy how that fits with the end of June dip though). 

The rate news is out at 1200 today so keep an eye out for that. 

Good luck today.