I will reprise the first part of my commentary from last time ‘Another month of another boring market…if there were options on Bitcoin (Bitcoin) I would be tempted to look at writing out of the money calls & puts just to get some income from past volatility – but as there isn’t – to my knowledge anyway, then I guess we’ll stay the same on the bullet point above of neutral!’. The bullet point stays the same but I have some additional comments to make.
First off, the significant support provided by the recent 50% Fib at 231.01. I don’t think this can be underestimated and perhaps with two consecutive closes underneath we might see some selling emerge. The next is the rapidly approaching 2013-to-date Uptrend (currently 223.71). This will either add to the support of the 50% Fib or if broken on a two consecutive close basis add to the selling pressure. Next are the two Key Reversals during May – the first on the 13th was a KR Down and we did have a move down thereafter to the support of the 50% Fib. The second on the 22nd was a KR Up and significantly this failed after three days and we have since moved down again to the 50% Fib.
Looking ahead, I think there may be significant pressure building up for a move lower, look at the MAs they all seem to be turning down so if things stay the same I will most likely next time turn the bullet point above into slightly bearish. Only consecutive closes over the Long MA (currently 272.43) would negate that.
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