Bitcoin Still Rangebound

What a boring month for Bitcoin (BTC-eUSD) compared to previous months and also to other currencies! We tried higher punching up through the Medium MA resistance (currently 256.63) only to fail just ahead of key 50% Fib of the Nov 2014 – Jan 2015 move at 303.16 – thereby causing a Bearing Engulfing Pattern mid-month on the Weekly Chart and cementing the move back down. Though we formed on the Monthly Chart an ‘almost’ Bearish Shooting Star Pattern, we failed also to go lower as prices dipped twice towards the end of the month to the recent key 50% Fib support at 231.01 and have so far rejected that as well!

So where now?

Well, 1st thing is to put the bullet point above into neutral! Next is to look at the conjunction of so many MAs between 253 & 257! We have a rare pattern known as a Bow Tie Pattern in the MAs where three (or more) MAs come together and separate making the impression of their crossover as if it were a bow tie! This rare pattern has some rules and tends to be effective (from my past recollection) between 66% - 75% of the time!

What happens is that approximately 15 – 20 working days after the crossover point the market moves in the direction of the way the Bow Tie points! In this particular case the crossover is happening now and because BTCUSD trades ALL days then the move ought to happen between the 18th – 23rd of Apr (assuming we actually get the Bow Tie – we need to ascertain that in the next few days!).

So far, it seems the direction is mildly bearish so let’s see how this works out for the pair! Support 249.56, 236.40, 231.01, 212.46 – 210.40 (dynamic), 208.48 & 207.61. Resistance 256.62 (dynamic), 267.51, 272.00, 280.46, 294.26, 296.79 – 297.95 & 303.16!

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