The main event for traders today will be the ECB rate decision and press conference with Mario Draghi. The Pound fell to a 4-month low against the euro during yesterday’s session and any positive developments out of Frankfurt for the single currency could see further declines for this pair. The previous meeting saw the euro surge higher after Draghi refused to be drawn on currency war comments at Davos from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, stating the the bank doesn’t target exchange rates. Today there will likely be questions on the recent trade war comments from across the Atlantic but again, it is unlikely that Draghi will deviate too much from his previous stance on this matter.
Policy tightening hints could be key
Despite a bit of softness in recent economic data from the Eurozone, the central bank may well choose to tweak their forward guidance and attempt to ready the markets further for the likely withdrawal of stimulus at some point later this year. The previous meeting so no adjustments made to the policy statement but there is a fair chance that today the easing bias remarks are removed, which essentially say that the ECB pledge to increase asset purchases if necessary. This may appear a subtle and small alteration, but it could be seen to be fairly hawkish and boost the Euro.
Fall in inflation a concern?
Should the easing bias be removed from the statement it would be considered an especially strong move from the ECB given the recent pullback in inflation. February saw Eurozone CPI hit a 14-month low and in light of the fact that the primary reason for the aforementioned easing was to fight off the threat of deflation, it would be a powerful signal to remove the easing bias after the recent decline.
Political instability having little impact on EU
Sunday’s election in Italy saw a better than expected performance from populists with the eurosceptic 5 star party winning the largest share of the vote. The same day saw Germany take a big step to forming a coalition government, which would end 6 months of negotiations since the election - the longest period of coalition-building in post-war Germany. What is remarkable about the Italian upset and the prolonged lack of a government in Germany is how little negative impact it has had on the markets.
Italian government bonds have barely blinked at the outcome of Sunday’s poll with a 10-year maturity still yielding less than 2%. At the height of the Eurozone crisis ECB meetings were dominated by political chat, culminating in Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” remarks concerning preservation of the Euro. In all likelihood the latest political developments will get at best a passing comment in today’s press conference and this is in many ways symbolic of how far the bloc has come in recent years.