1. Brexit deferred - 29 March
This week’s EU Council meeting gave us a Plan B for the UK’s departure from the EU. An extension to May 22nd if the PM’s deal passes. This looks unlikely given the negative reaction towards the Prime Minister’s speech earlier this week, which means on an alternative scenario that MPs would have until April 12th to either put forward alternative arrangements, pass the deal or push for another extension.
The option of no deal is still likely to remain on the table in the absence of a revocation of Article 50, which means for now Brexit has been deferred, however for this to happen MPs still need to vote and pass a statutory instrument to move the departure date from 29th March to April 12th.
A series of indicative votes, on an alphabet soup of options should give us a better idea of that MPs can agree on, with some speculation that there could also be a non-binding vote on revoking. The optics of MPs war gaming this option would be certainly be interesting given the current febrile atmosphere, and probably wouldn’t be particularly helpful in lowering the political temperature. We’ll also get a better idea of whether Prime Minister May can actually survive in position over the course of the next few days.
2. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) event – 25/03
Apple is expected to unveil a new subscription based video streaming service which is expected to take the fight to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) who appear to have sewn up this part of the techno space.
The launch is expected to be quite high profile with a host of celebrities expected to attend. The service is expected to be integrated within the Apple TV service, however if they want to gain traction they may well have to consider developing an app or partner with broadcasters in the way Netflix have partnered with Sky to integrate their service into their Sky Q set top box
3. UK Q4 GDP final – 29/03
The UK economy had a disappointing end to 2018, however economic activity still showed solid expansion despite a sharp slowdown in December. Economic growth is expected to have slowed to 0.2% from 0.6% in Q3, while annualised GDP is expected to slow to 1.3%. Business investment is expected to show the largest drag with an annualised decline of 3.7%
4. US Q4 GDP final – 28/03
The US economy is expected to see GDP growth adjusted down to 2.4% from 2.6% in the latest update on US economic activity. Last weeks Fed meeting saw US officials downgrade their expectations for the outlook for interest rate rises, on the back of subdued inflationary pressure, and concerns over a slowing global economy.
5. EU flash CPI (Mar) – 29/03
Earlier this month the European Central Bank sharply downgraded its estimates for GDP and inflation over the course of the next 12 months. This week’s flash CPI numbers for March are expected to reinforce this pessimistic view, with headline inflation expected to remain at 1.5%, with core prices expected to come in even weaker at 1%.
6. German IFO Business sentiment – 25/03
Business sentiment in Germany has been on a decline for several months now and has thus far shown little sign of picking up with concerns over US and China trade and the prospect of a “no deal” Brexit weighing on sentiment. The sharp decline in flash PMI manufacturing data could well see business sentiment collapse further in March.
Expectations are for a modest increase to 98.7 from 98.5, however in light of Friday’s PMI data that seems hopelessly optimistic.
7. LYFT (NASDAQ:LYFT) IPO – 28/03
This week ride sharing app Lyft will list on the Nasdaq with a valuation coming in at around $20bn, with 30.77m shares listed between $62-$68 a share. Management are hoping to raise a total of around $2bn, and the shares could well get a decent pop higher when they open given reports that the book was oversubscribed within two days.
8. Fevertree (LON:FEVR) FY18 – 26/03
It looks set to be another successful year for this British success story, a company that has turned into one of the leading exporters and producers of carbonated mixers. Full year revenues are expected to have risen 39% to £236m, with UK revenues rising 52%.
The growing popularity of gin as the tipple of choice has helped drive sales here with the Wine and Spirit Trade Association reporting that 66m bottles of gin were sold in 2018, a rise of 41%. The deal signed with US based Southern-Glazers wine and spirits has also helped boost profits, pushing revenues up sharply compared to 2017.
9. A.G.Barr PLC (LON:BAG) FY18 – 26/03
It's expected to be a decent set of numbers from the Irn Bru maker with revenues expected to rise by 5%, on the back of rising volumes. The only cloud is expected to be around the economic outlook and further regulatory interventions in the form of higher sugar levies. With the shares already near record highs there is some scope for disappointment if the numbers fall short.
10. Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN) Q1 19 - 27/03
It’s been a difficult year for US house builders with new and existing home sales in steady decline for months now. Since the beginning of 2018 the shares have declined over 25%, though we have seen some decent gains since the lows at the end of last year.
At the most recent update at the beginning of this year management said that sales and deliveries missed their targets in Q4, and thus far the housing data hasn’t shown any sustained improvement suggesting that the company may well have got off to a similarly slow start to its new financial year.
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