By Jan Lopatka
(Reuters) - Slovakia's three-time prime minister Robert Fico is seeking a return to power in a Sept. 30 election, with final opinion polls showing his SMER-SSD party in a dead heat with its main challenger, the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS).
Fico turned increasingly more anti-Western while in opposition, and a Fico-led government may in some ways align Slovakia with neighbouring Hungary, which has clashed with Western partners on matters from the rule of law to Ukraine and EU affairs.
A PS administration would likely continue with most of the policies of the current caretaker cabinet and the previous centre-right government, including support for Ukraine and strong ties with EU and NATO partners.
Here are some of the main issues at stake:
UKRAINE
Fico pledges to end military supplies to Ukraine, and to provide only humanitarian aid. So far, Slovakia has sent equipment including MiG-29 fighter jets and an S-300 air defence system to aid Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
Fico has been sketchy on details but in emailed answers to Reuters, he said he meant supplies from army storage. Analysts have said there is not much left in army storage, so a halt may have limited practical impact.
The NATO country is home to ammunitions and heavy military equipment makers. Fico has not said supplies from the private sector would be stopped.
Fico has said he is opposed to shipments of military aid through Slovakia, which has rail and road links with Ukraine. However, he has said he may not be able to prevent them altogether, given international commitments.
RUSSIA SANCTIONS
Fico has repeatedly criticised sanctions against Russia as ineffective and harmful to the European economy.
Any new sanctions on any country will be scrutinised for their impact on Slovakia. He has also said relations with Russia should be restored after the war.
PS supports sanctions.
EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Fico said Ukraine's EU entry is a far-off prospect.
He rejects any change to unanimity decision-making rules that have been discussed in the EU to make it more flexible.
He calls for more cooperation within the Visegrad Group (V4) of neighbouring countries on policies including resistance to accepting migrants. The V4 includes Poland and Hungary, which have often been at odds with Western EU partners, and to whom Slovakia may drift closer under Fico.
Progressive Slovakia has said it would support opening EU entry talks with Ukraine this year. It would back a change in EU voting rules.
RULE OF LAW
In 2018, the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee spurred mass protests against corruption that eventually forced Fico to resign.
Following the 2020 election victory of parties promising to weed out graft, a number of cases were opened against business leaders, judicial and police officers, and some politicians. According to Slovak media, 40 people have been sentenced in the sweep and another 130 are being investigated or tried.
Fico himself faced charges, later dropped, that he used information from police and tax authorities to discredit political rivals. He has railed against the investigation and has sought to dismiss Special Prosecutor Daniel Lipsic, who leads an office overseeing the investigation of high corruption.
Analysts and foreign diplomats have said moves affecting the justice system would be watched by the EU, which has a mechanism to stop flows of European subsidies to countries deemed to be infringing the rule of law.
U.S. RELATIONS
Fico has claimed, without presenting proof, that liberal President Zuzana Caputova is a U.S. puppet and stands for the interests of U.S. financier George Soros. She has sued him.
He has said he wants to reopen the Defence Cooperation Agreement with the United States, which is similar to treaties the U.S. has with most NATO allies.
PS has no such plans.
BUDGET
The finance ministry expects a public sector deficit of 6.85% of gross domestic product this year, the highest in the euro zone. The ministry has said at least 5 percentage points worth of savings measures were needed in the upcoming term to stem the growth of debt which would otherwise jump to 67% of GDP by 2026.
Fico has pledged to go slowly on budget consolidation, by 0.5 percentage points per year. His party has plans to subsidise mortgage rates and introduce a special bank levy. It has said highly-profitable industries should be subject to a special tax.
PS has pledged "at least" the same budget consolidation pace and plans a reform of social benefits to make them more targeted.