Lee Enterprises reported a significant earnings miss for Q3 2024, with an EPS of -$1.69 against a forecast of $0.65. This unexpected shortfall led to a 13.81% drop in the company's stock price, closing at $14.35, signaling investor concerns despite strong digital revenue growth.
Key Takeaways
- EPS missed expectations by a wide margin, coming in at -$1.69 versus a forecast of $0.65.
- Stock price fell by 13.81%, reflecting investor disappointment.
- Digital revenue grew by 70% annually, surpassing print revenue.
- Debt has been reduced to $453 million, a $123 million decrease since March 2020.
- Print revenue declined by 22% year-over-year.
Company Performance
Lee Enterprises continues its transformation towards a digital-first model, achieving a digital revenue inflection point where digital now exceeds print revenue. Despite this progress, the company reported a substantial earnings miss, which has raised concerns about its ability to manage costs and leverage its digital growth effectively.
Financial Highlights
- Total (EPA:TTEF) operating revenue: $151 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: $15 million
- Digital revenue growth: 9%
- Print revenue decline: 22% year-over-year
- Cash costs reduced by 8% compared to the prior year
Earnings vs. Forecast
Lee Enterprises reported an EPS of -$1.69, missing the forecasted $0.65 by a significant margin. This represents a negative surprise of approximately 360%, highlighting potential operational challenges or market conditions affecting the company.
Market Reaction
Following the earnings announcement, Lee Enterprises' stock dropped by 13.81%, closing at $14.35. This decline reflects strong investor disappointment, particularly given the company's proximity to its 52-week low of $7.56. The reaction contrasts with broader market stability, indicating company-specific concerns.
Company Outlook
Looking forward, Lee Enterprises aims to end the year with 771,000 digital subscribers and has updated its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $73-$78 million. The company continues to focus on digital transformation, aiming for digital gross margins to exceed SG&A costs by 2026.
Executive Commentary
CEO Kevin Mowbray emphasized the company's digital growth, stating, "We're growing digital subscribers faster than anyone else while demonstrating higher value to our readers." CFO Tim Millage highlighted the company's strategic focus: "Our main priority is to drive long-term sustainable digital revenue growth."
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about cost transformation efforts and potential asset sales planned for 2025. Executives expressed optimism about future digital growth and cost management strategies.
Risks and Challenges
- Continued decline in print revenue could impact overall profitability.
- Execution risk in achieving digital transformation goals.
- Potential macroeconomic pressures affecting advertising revenue.
- Challenges in maintaining subscriber growth amid competitive pressures.
- Managing costs while investing in digital capabilities.
Full transcript - Lee Enterprises (LEE) Q3 2024:
Conference Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Lee Enterprises 20 24 Third Quarter Webcast and Conference Call. The call is being recorded and will be available for replay at investors. We.net. At the close of the planned remarks, there will be an opportunity for questions. Participants accessing this call by webcast may submit written questions through the website and they will be answered during the call as time permits.
Otherwise, you will receive a response later. A link to the live webcast can be found at investors. Lee.net. Now, I will turn the call over to your host, Jared Marks, Vice President of Finance.
Jared Marks, Vice President of Finance, Lee Enterprises: Good morning. Thank you for joining us. In addition to myself, speaking on this morning's call are Kevin Mowbray, President and Chief Executive Officer and Tim Millage, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Earlier today, we issued a news release with preliminary results for our 3rd fiscal quarter of 2024. It is available at me.net as well as major financial websites.
Please also refer to our earnings presentation found at investors. Lee.net, which includes supplemental information. As a reminder, this morning's discussion will include forward looking statements based on our current expectations. These statements are subject to certain risks, trends and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Such factors are described in this morning's news release and in our SEC filings.
During the call, we refer to certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the relevant GAAP measures are included in the tables accompanying the release. And now to open the discussion is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Mowbray.
Kevin Mowbray, President and Chief Executive Officer, Lee Enterprises: Thank you, Jared. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call this morning. I'm delighted to share that we've made significant progress on our digital transformation. In the Q3, each of our digital revenue streams grew year over year and we effectively managed costs. In our last call, we told you digital revenue would surpass print revenue in the 3rd quarter.
I'm happy to share that our 3rd quarter operating results achieved this digital revenue inflection point. This marks an important milestone in our digital transformation as it reduces our reliance on print. It's also important as the volatility of the print business is the driving force behind the updates and our adjusted EBITDA guidance that Tim will share more on in a few minutes. Another reason the inflection point is important is with nearly 2 thirds of the company's gross margin derived from our digital businesses, we're approaching our goal of being sustainable from our digital products only. Nearing digital sustainability is a testament to the progress we've made on our 3 pillar digital growth strategy.
Lee remains an industry leader in several key digital categories. We are the fastest growing digital subscription platform in local media from both a revenue and subscriber perspective. Our digital subscription unit growth has outpaced industry peers since we first implemented our digital transformation strategy 4 years ago. We now have more than 748,000 digital subscribers, which is up a significant 23% compared to the prior year. We've also generated consistent and significant revenue growth from digital subscribers.
This revenue category has grown 43% annually over the last 3 years, nearly doubling the nearest industry competitor. Simply put, we're growing digital subscribers faster than anyone else while demonstrating higher value to our readers and executing price increases to our digital subscribers. This clearly demonstrates our distinguished presence in local markets as well as the strong demand for the valuable content we provide. We've expanded the amount of local news content delivered to our readers ultimately to give them more opportunities to engage and subscribe. We've strengthened our community connections and recommitted to the meeting conversations throughout the communities we serve.
Publishing local news content that reflects the people and the work they do to uplift their communities is the driving force behind our digital subscription business. Our hyper local content is a key driver to our digital transformation as our content provides the most robust monetization opportunities through subscriptions, advertising, potential content licensing agreements and other opportunities. Our digital agency, Amplify Digital grew 12% in the 3rd quarter and annualized revenue at Amplify Digital is more than $100,000,000 This represents an outstanding 37% annual growth rate over the last 3 years, far outpacing others within the industry. The industry leading growth rates in these revenue streams are driving our digital transformation. Total digital revenue has grown to $290,000,000 over the last 12 months, a 70% growth rate annually over the last 3 years.
This digital growth has driven rapid change in our revenue composition, helping us to achieve the revenue inflection point I mentioned earlier. Our commitment to digital transformation yielded strong digital results this quarter seen most clearly by each digital revenue stream growing year over year. Digital advertising revenue reached $50,000,000 and achieved year over year growth at healthy margins. Ampli Digital Agency, which is the subset of our digital advertising revenue, totaled $26,000,000 and grew 12% year over year. Digital subscriptions revenue totaled $21,000,000 and grew 34% year over year at the highest margins in our digital portfolio.
Our digital revenue is diverse, growing and highly profitable. Of note, we're not reliant on any one stream of digital revenue, but rather a collection of profitable and growing revenue streams. We're excited to surpass the revenue inflection points this quarter. This important milestone demonstrates the success of our strategy thus far to the growth of our digital revenue streams and reduces our reliance on print. We've made great progress on our digital transformation over the last few years.
Digital revenue has grown more than 17% annually since FY 2021 and that's translated to a 14% annual growth rate in digital gross margins or the same 3 year time span. Our digital margin is also impressive 72%, meaning our digital businesses are highly profitable. Replacing print revenue and growing a profitable digital revenue will help us achieve our long term digital sustainability. We expect by 2026, the gross margin from our digital products will exceed the company's remaining SG and A costs. Said differently, within 2 years, we expect revenue from our digital businesses to cover all of these cash costs excluding print.
The growth in our digital businesses is expected to accelerate as we're still scratching the surface of the addressable digital subscription and digital services marketplace. It's quite exciting to see how close we are to being sustainable from our digital revenue streams. I'll show more updates in the coming quarters regarding our progress towards this digital milestone. But for now, I'll pass it over to Tim to talk more about our quarterly results.
Tim Millage, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Lee Enterprises: Thank you, Kevin, and good morning all. As Kevin noted, we're quite pleased with our business momentum and the progress we have made this quarter on our digital transformation and this is reflected in our financial results. Total operating revenue in the 3rd quarter was $151,000,000 These results represent a market improvement in same store revenue trends, representing 150 basis point sequential improvement. Looking to the digital business, total digital revenue growth continued at a strong clip, up 9%. The primary driver of the growth was our digital subscription revenue, which increased 34% year over year.
Digital subscribers grew an impressive 23% and digital only ARPU had a strong year over year growth as well. We also saw improvements in digital advertising revenue within our owned and operated digital products and our Amplify Digital revenue delivered double digit growth in the quarter. We're quite pleased with the digital momentum gained in the quarter and we expect it will continue. On the print side, total print revenue declined 22% year over year, but represented a modest sequential improvement over the 2nd quarter trend. On the expense side, we've managed our costs carefully leading to cash costs in the quarter being down 8% compared to the prior year.
All of that led to adjusted EBITDA of $15,000,000 in the quarter. Lee has a highly successful track record of effective cost management. In fiscal year 2024, our business transformation efforts will yield between $75,000,000 $85,000,000 in cost savings. While we remain focused on operational excellence, reducing our cost structure of our legacy print business and growing profits, our main priority is to drive long term sustainable digital revenue growth. Therefore, we continue to invest in talent and technology in the areas of our business tied to our digital future and our commitment to high quality and hyper local news remains primary.
As we progress with our digital transformation, we will continue to keep you updated on our digital investments as there is an exciting pathway ahead. Next (LON:NXT), I'll move to the balance sheet. The principal amount of debt decreased by $3,000,000 year to date and totaled $453,000,000 a $123,000,000 reduction since March of 2020. Let me remind you that our credit agreement with Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa), our sole lender has very favorable terms that are incredibly important as we execute our strategy. The longevity of our debt is a strategic advantage for us as it enables us the flexibility to make the necessary investments in talent and technology that is fueling our digital growth and will achieve our digital transformation.
The agreement was executed in 2020, has a fixed interest rate and a 25 year maturity. These favorable terms have been quite beneficial in the rising rate environment we have seen
Kevin Mowbray, President and Chief Executive Officer, Lee Enterprises: over the last few years.
Tim Millage, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Lee Enterprises: We continue to identify opportunities to monetize our non core assets which facilitates accelerated debt reduction. We closed nearly $7,000,000 of asset sales year to date and have identified an additional $25,000,000 of non core assets to monetize. While we cannot be sure of the details will close, we do expect approximately $10,000,000 of sales to close by the end of the fiscal year. I'd like to point everyone to our 2024 outlook for total digital revenue, digital subscribers, cash costs and adjusted EBITDA. We remain on track to deliver our total digital revenue and digital subscriber targets for the year, improving digital advertising and the potential for incremental spend due to competitive political races in our markets has us poised to achieve within the range of total digital revenue.
Digital subscriber growth continues on pace with our full year expectations and we expect to end the year with 771,000 digital subscribers. We are improving cash cost guidance in the range of $5.50 to $5.60 and this represents a $20,000,000 improvement on the low end as we have been working towards it that reflects the tightening of our operating expenses tied to our persistent print revenue declines. We are updating adjusted EBITDA outlook to $73,000,000 to $78,000,000 and this change is the result of the lagging print business and reflective of the incremental cost reductions we have taken in response.
Kevin Mowbray, President and Chief Executive Officer, Lee Enterprises: And with that, I will turn it back to Kevin. Thanks, Tim. To reiterate my excitement about performance this quarter, we believe we are on a solid ground that reflect both a notable and sustained momentum in our digital transformation. Our investment thesis is founded on our 3 pillar digital growth strategy, which is guiding us on our digital transformation journey. Our progress thus far has been a total team effort, I want to express my genuine gratitude to the entire league team.
We believe there's tremendous opportunity ahead for us and we're well positioned to capitalize on this quarter's momentum moving forward. Under the guidance on our side of our Board of Directors, our leadership team's continued execution of our strategy sets the stage for significant long term value creation for our readers, users, advertisers and shareholders. This concludes our remarks. The team will remain on the line for any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Conference Operator: Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. As a reminder, if you are accessing this call by webcast, you may submit typed questions on your screen. Those questions will be answered during the call as time permits. One moment please while we poll for questions.
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Daniel Herrmann from Sidoti and Company. Daniel, your line is open.
Daniel Herrmann, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Guys, congratulations on the digital inflection that you have there. Obviously, we understand the reason for the EBITDA guide down with the print decline, but it seems like you're doing a lot of great work on the cost side and you're expecting, obviously, like you said, dollars 75,000,000 to 85 $1,000,000 in savings this year with the transformation. Can you just remind us a little bit more about what goes into that?
Tim Millage, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Lee Enterprises: Yes. Thanks, Daniel. As you pointed out, we do have a significant or a good track record of managing our costs and we do have about $75,000,000 to $85,000,000 of business transformation baked into our forecast for FY 2024. We have a significant number of print expenses, operating expenses and we certainly monitor those expenses to ensure that our costs are in line with those revenue streams. And to that effect with the persistent acceleration decline of print, We have improved the cost guidance by $20,000,000 on the low end and that reflects tightening costs primarily within the print business.
All of that aligns and speaks to the importance of our digital transformation and you mentioned the inflection point. I think that really is an important milestone as it positions us well to be less reliant on the volatile print business going forward and also demonstrates significant change in the mix of our revenue and our gross margin to be more sustainable and growing.
Daniel Herrmann, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: Okay, great. Thank you so much, Tim. And then just one more if I can quickly. With the asset sales that you've identified, the 2024, is it safe to assume that that will close in 2025 or is there too much uncertainty surrounding that right now?
Tim Millage, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Lee Enterprises: Yes. I think there's always uncertainty with commercial real estate, but we are optimistic that we can get the remaining assets closed in 2025. I do think lowering of interest rates will be helpful. Lowering of construction costs will be helpful as we start to see some more investment into commercial real estate on the horizon. So we are optimistic that we can get the remaining amount closed in $25,000,000 And the $25,000,000 is not the top end.
We're going to continue to evaluate our real estate portfolio and work to increase that amount going forward as well.
Daniel Herrmann, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: Great. Kevin, Tim, thank you both so much and look forward to see what you do in
Tim Millage, Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Lee Enterprises: the coming quarters. Thanks, Daniel. We have no questions from the web. So I'll turn it back to Kevin for closing remarks.
Kevin Mowbray, President and Chief Executive Officer, Lee Enterprises: Well, thank you all for joining the call this morning. We appreciate your time and your interest in Lee. Thank you again.
Conference Operator: Thank you. At this time, we have reached the end of our question and answer session. This concludes our call.
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