The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY (NYSE:SPY)) has been experiencing a strong bull cycle recently despite the confirmed longer-term bear cycle caused by soaring inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a looming recession.
The ETF was also heavily boosted last week by very bullish reactions to a number of big tech stocks reporting earnings, such as Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMZN)
On Wednesday, the ETF experienced one of its most bullish days in recent history, soaring up 1.77% in a somewhat surprising reaction to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75% for the second month in a row. The SPY had likely begun to price in the possibility of a full percentage point hike, which made the 0.75% decision seem dovish in comparison.
The market is forward-looking, and the most recent decisions made by the Fed likely caused the 24.54% plunge that occurred between Jan. 4 and June 17, when the SPY bounced up off the $362.17 level, which marked a 52-week low.
Since the lows, the SPY has been extremely bullish, soaring up over 13% higher. Over the past three days alone, the SPY has surged 5.4%, which may indicate a pullback is likely to come in the week ahead because according to technical analysis on the ETF’s chart, the SPY is becoming over extended to the upside.
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The SPY Chart: The SPY’s relative strength index (RSI) is measuring in at about 66% on the daily chart. When a stock or ETF’s RSI nears, reaches or trades above the 70% level it becomes technically overbought, which often signals a pullback is on the horizon.
- It should be noted, however, that the RSI indicator can remain extended to both the upside and the downside for significant periods of time. The last time the SPY’s RSI approached the 66% level was on Oct. 25, 2021, but after that date, the SPY surged another 3.22% higher before temporarily topping out at $470.65 on Nov. 5 when its RSI reached a whopping 77%.
- The SPY is trading in a strong uptrend on the weekly and daily charts, which indicates a pullback would likely just result in another higher low. On the daily chart, the SPY has room to retrace to the $389.95 level before negating the trend.
- On Friday, the SPY closed near to its high-of-day price, which indicates higher prices may come on Monday. The second most likely scenario is that the ETF will print an inside bar, or even a series of inside bars, to consolidate the recent surge, which would also help to cool down the RSI.
- Of course, news events and the upcoming earnings week could negatively impact the markets, and traders and investors should always be looking both ways and managing their risk versus reward.
- The SPY has resistance above at $414.70 and $420.76 and support below at $408 and $404.
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