Investing.com -- HSBC (LON:HSBA) believes investors should take advantage of the recent market pullback to increase exposure to U.S. equities, citing contrarian buy signals in key sentiment and positioning indicators.
Despite renewed fears of recession, the bank remains optimistic about risk assets.
After a relief rally in August, concerns about a potential U.S. recession returned last week.
However, HSBC notes that "some sentiment, positioning, and technical indicators are again flashing contrarian buy signals." The bank's cyclical leading indicators suggest that while labor market dynamics are cooling, they do not point to an imminent recession.
The bank believes inflation is no longer a primary concern, with various measures having eased significantly since April. As a result, the bank expects the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle, starting with a 25-basis-point cut in September.
"We think a starting cut of 25bp in September would be much more supportive for risk assets than a 50bp one," wrote HSBC. "A deeper cut to start with would likely fuel recession concerns even further."
From an asset allocation perspective, HSBC highlights large shifts in sentiment and positioning since mid-July.
They believe the positioning of systematic investors in U.S. rates is likely stretched while equity positioning has decreased. Other indicators, such as the VIX futures curve and short interest in equity ETFs, are signaling buying opportunities.
In response, HSBC is adding to U.S. equities, noting that third-quarter earnings expectations "don't look challenging to beat."
The bank is also closing its overweight position in high-yield credit, shifting to neutral on U.S. high-yield bonds, and extending its overweight position in emerging market debt.
HSBC concludes, "We don't think it's the time to pull the plug on risk assets. We, therefore, add to U.S. equities," suggesting that investors use the current pullback to enhance their equity exposure while positioning themselves for potential gains.