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US equity outlook remains positive after strong rally - UBS

Published 05/03/2024, 16:38
© Reuters.

Despite the strong recent rally, analysts at UBS believe the outlook remains strong, even though stocks have taken a "breather at the start of the week."

"The benchmark has gained in 16 of the last 18 weeks for the first time since 1971. If the index gains ground again this week, that would mark 17 out of 19 for the first time since 1964," said the bank.

However, analysts note that if US stocks are to pass this milestone, it is likely to depend on the outcome of key events this week, including the tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and US jobs data for February.

"While there are always economic and market risks, and the climb higher for risk assets may slow, we see evidence that supports a positive near- and medium-term outlook," added UBS.

"Analysts believe investor euphoria isn't close to what it was in the late 1990s, before the dotcom bubble burst," they wrote, noting that the growth outlook has improved.

"Recent economic data have been mixed, and the 3% growth rate in 2023 is unlikely to be sustained. But market pricing implies investors are confident in the outlook, with consensus 2024 GDP growth now at 2%, compared with below 1% during second half of 2023."

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