The U.S. economy experienced a robust 4.9% inflation-adjusted annual growth rate in Q3, exceeding economists' predictions of 4.7% and doubling the 2.1% growth seen in Q2. This notable performance is potentially at risk due to rising long-term interest rates, geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown.
Although this GDP growth was lower than the Atlanta FED GDPNOW's forecast of 5.3%, it is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions. The Fed has maintained interest rates at a 22-year peak, providing policymakers an opportunity to evaluate the effects of their past rate hikes and recent events such as the sharp bond market sell-off.
While the U.S.'s economic growth demonstrates resilience, these potential threats could pose challenges moving forward. Policymakers will continue to monitor these factors closely as they navigate fiscal policy decisions in the coming months.
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