By Senad Karaahmetovic
UBS analysts reiterated a Buy rating on Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) shares and believe the upcoming Analyst Day could act as a catalyst to re-rate shares higher.
Still, the analysts lowered the price target by almost 50% to $94 per share to reflect lowered multiples and revised estimates. The analysts note that checks focused on TWLO demand came back "more cautious," although this is likely already reflected in shares. The four key highlights from UBS' checks include:
- Slowing growth, including more competition/price sensitivity;
- Most US checks were tolerant of the ~5% SMS price increase;
- TWLO still seems to lack the C-Suite GTM motion to effectively compete in customer engagement against ADBE/CRM; and
- Authentication is the largest single category of TWLO's SMS volumes.
Looking forward to the Analyst Day, which is scheduled for November 03, the analysts believe TWLO shares could react positively to a "growth guide down combined with product-specific disclosures (enabling modeling of margin improvement overtime)."
"Visibility to stabilizing/improving GMs and an OM inflection is needed for some price relief (likely a show-me story for longer-term interest), and our math suggests potential for a constructive outlook at the Analyst Day," the analysts said in a client note.