Tui Group (LON: TUI (LON:TUIT)) share price remained in a consolidation phase on Monday as traders waited for the next catalyst. The stock was trading at 621p where it has been stuck in the past few weeks. This price is about 64% above the lowest level in 2023, giving it a market cap of over 3 billion pounds.
Global travel is set to boom
Tui Group is one of the biggest travel and tourism companies in the world. The company owns hotels, cruise ships, airlines, tour operators, and Tui Musement. It serves millions of customers internationally every year.
Tui Group had a strong performance in the past financial year. Its most recent data revealed that the company’s underlying EBIT jumped by 139% to €977 million. This happened as the number of travelers jumped internationally. It served over 7.8 million customers in the final quarter of the year.
Tui Group also worked to reduce its debt, which it accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic. It ended the year with a net debt of €2.1 billion and ended the period with a net leverage ratio of 1.2x.
One of the most important news during the last release was that the company was considering delisting from London to focus on its German listing. That decision will be a big blow to London, which has lost several prominent companies because of weak liquidity.
Still, there are several reasons why Tui Group share price will continue doing well in 2024. First, analysts believe that the global travel industry will continue thriving this year as inflation cools.
In a recent report, IATA noted that airline revenue will grow to 7.6% to over $964 billion. These companies will make a profit of over $25.7 billion. Tui does well when the travel sector is recovering.
Second, the stock and crypto market did well in 2023 as indices in Europe, US, and Asian markets reached their all-time highs. This means that investor confidence could continue rising this year, pushing more people to travel.
Further, the unemployment rate in most countries has started falling, which is another positive catalyst for a company like Tui.
Tui share price forecast
Tui chart by TradingView
Turning to the daily chart, we see that the Tui Group stock price has been in a tight range in the past few weeks. It was trading at 622p, where it has been since December last year. This price is a few points below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Tui shares have risen above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). They have also formed what looks like a bullish pennant pattern, which is a positive sign. The upper side of this pennant is at 643.50, the highest swing on August 1st.
Therefore, the outlook for the stock is bullish, with the next level to watch being at 817p, the 50% retracement point. This price is about 31% above the current level.