Benzinga - by Chris Katje, Benzinga Staff Writer.
Betting odds are heating up for the 2024 presidential election, with Donald Trump and Joe Biden emerging as frontrunners in a likely rematch of their 2020 contest.
As the election approaches in just under seven months, the stakes are reflected in closely matched odds, suggesting a highly competitive race ahead.
What Happened: Trump and Biden have dominated the polls and election odds for many months, after the Republican primaries saw Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drop out and pledge his support to Trump for the GOP nomination.
While Trump fought off challenges from DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley and others, Biden faced minimal opposition as the incumbent.
U.S. residents can't actively bet with online sportsbooks on who the next president will be. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) offer betting on politics for resident of Canada. Foreign sportsbooks in Europe and other markets may also offer betting on the 2024 election.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told Benzinga previously he hoped someday political betting on big races such as president will be allowed in the U.S.
The latest betting odds from Bet365 for the 2024 presidential election, as provided by Covers, show Trump and Biden tied to win the presidency at odds of +110. This means a $100 bet on Trump or Biden would pay out a profit of $110 for the winner.
Coming in third place is Michelle Obama at +1,600, wife of former president Barack Obama. The former first lady has given no public indication that she plans to run in the 2024 election. Also tied for third place is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an Independent in the race.
Here's a look at how betting odds have changed over time.
| Name | April 2024 | Feb. 2024 | Nov. 2023 | Aug. 2023 | May 2023 | Feb. 2023 | Nov. 2022 |
| Donald Trump | +110 | +100 | +137 | +200 | +240 | +350 | +330 |
| Joe Biden | +110 | +225 | +200 | +150 | +150 | +250 | +500 |
| Michelle Obama | +1,600 | +600 | +1,800 | +1,400 | +3,300 | +3,500 | +3,500 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +1,600 | +2,000 | +1,600 | +1,400 | +1,400 | N/A | N/A |
| Gavin Newsom | +2,800 | +1,200 | +600 | +1,200 | +3,300 | +2,000 | +1,400 |
| Kamala Harris | +3,300 | +1,600 | +3,300 | +3,300 | +2,800 | +1,800 | +1,200 |
| Nikki Haley | +5,000 | +1,800 | +1,200 | +2000 | +3,300 | +2,000 | +2,800 |
Along with the odds for the 2024 presidential election, Bet365 also has odds for the party nominations. Trump is a -5,000 favorite to win the Republican nomination, which would pay out a profit of $2 on a $100 bet if he wins. Haley ranks second at +1,400.
Biden is the favorite to secure the Democratic Party nomination at -500, which means a $100 bet would pay out a profit of $20. Gavin Newsom and Obama rank second and third, respectively, at +900 and +1,000.
Related Link: Biden Vs. Trump: New Poll Shows Tie In 2024 Election Race, One Candidate Gains Among Independent Voters
Why It's Important: Trump has topped the betting odds for several months in the race for the 2024 presidential election. Back in August 2023, Biden was the favorite to win re-election.
Going back to Biden’s inauguration in January 2021, it was current Vice President Kamala Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350, based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
When Biden declared his candidacy for reelection, he emerged as the betting favorite, as many anticipated that a tight race between DeSantis and Trump for the Republican nomination would weaken one of them.
Polymarket, which calls itself "the world's largest prediction market," offers betting on several political outcomes, including the overall 2024 presidential election.
On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) via the Polygon network (CRYPTO: MATIC), or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.
Over $115 million has been wagered on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket. Here are the current projected odds on Polymarket, with odds from March after Biden's State of the Union address in parentheses.
- Joe Biden: 44% (32%)
- Donald Trump: 43% (53%)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 4% (4%)
- Michelle Obama: 3% (4%)
- Gavin Newsom: Less than 1% (3%)
- Kamala Harris: Less than 1% (2%)
- Nikki Haley: Less than 1% (Less than 1%)
Biden’s rise in the betting odds coincides with Trump facing a criminal trial over alleged hush money payments.
Read Next: Can Biden Or Trump Build IKEA Furniture? 2024 Election Polls May Have Gone Too Far
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