Jefferies analysts started research coverage on electronics manufacturing services provider Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) with a Hold rating and a price target of $230.
According to the investment bank, Fabrinet’s Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) business sets up the company for “a long runway of future growth” though they believe the stock already reflects the bullish scenario.
“Also, there are risks around additional transceivers suppliers getting qualified by Nvidia and/or waning investor enthusiasm for AI,” analysts added.
Fabrinet, which Jefferies calls “Nvidia’s little brother” is a contract manufacturer specializing in optical communications solutions.
Jefferies projects 8% sales growth for Fabrinet in the fiscal year 2024, reaching $2.865 billion, and 13% growth in 2025, totaling $3.249 billion.
They expect Fabrinet’s business with Nvidia to increase from an estimated $990 million in 2024 to $1.4 billion in 2025. According to their calculations, Nvidia would only need to capture 25% of the back-end GPU transceiver market for Fabrinet to meet this target.
In an optimistic scenario, with Nvidia holding a 40-45% market share, the Nvidia-Fabrinet partnership could generate an additional $1 billion in sales, analysts added.
“Fabrinet would have to ramp manufacturing – including Building 10 – to achieve this. This would be several years away if it happens, but our upside scenario translates into over $13/share in EPS power,” they wrote.