Tuesday, MP Materials (NYSE:MP) experienced a revision in its financial outlook as Canaccord Genuity adjusted the company's stock price target to $22 from the previous $23. The firm maintained a Buy rating on the stock, despite the price target reduction.
The change comes as Canaccord Genuity recalibrates its expectations for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) pricing, which is a key component in the company's valuation model.
The adjustment in the price target reflects a broader revision of Canaccord Genuity's global view on NdPr pricing, following a collaborative effort with their global mining teams. The firm's updated estimates now set the 2025 expected NdPr pricing at approximately $93 per kilogram, up from the earlier forecast of $80 per kilogram. Still, for 2026, the estimate has been slightly reduced from $115 per kilogram to around $114 per kilogram.
These revisions in NdPr price estimates have implications for MP Materials' financial projections. The updated model indicates that the company's expected EBITDA for 2025 will increase from approximately $214 million to around $280 million. On the other hand, the forecast for 2026 has been modified, with the anticipated EBITDA now set to decrease slightly from around $455 million to approximately $436 million.
The adjustment in the price target and earnings forecasts indicates a nuanced view of MP Materials' financial future, balancing the near- and medium-term expectations for key commodity pricing. The maintained Buy rating suggests that, despite the adjustments, Canaccord Genuity still sees value in the stock at the revised price level.
Investors in MP Materials will likely monitor the NdPr market closely, as these pricing dynamics play a significant role in the company's profitability and the stock's performance on the NYSE.
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