Mizuho reiterated a Buy rating on Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and cut their 12-month price target on the stock to $27.00 (From $30.00) as the company continues to ramp production and prepare factories for increased capacity.
Analysts wrote in a note, “RIVN only produced 10.4k vehicles in the MarQ due to continued supply chain constraints, mainly at SiC and IGBT suppliers, and the shutdown of EDV lines for Enduro and LFP battery retooling. RIVN has reaffirmed its 50k production target for C23E. We would also note that RIVN sees Enduro and LFP driving a 25% lower BOM, helping boost long-term profitability as it also looks to begin selling higher ASP R1 units. However, as RIVN sees some 1H24E R1 line rerates to help ramp to full R1 capacity of 85k exiting 2024E and only one shift of EDV production, we are lowering our F24E/F25E delivery estimates. We now see F23E/F24E/F25E deliveries at 48k/92k/115k (prior 48k/99k/140k) with C23E including ~37k/11k R1/EDVs, and C24E at 68k/24k.”
Analysts believe that Rivian is on track to meet its reiterated production target of ~50k units in 2023. With planned line downs for the R1 in 1H24E for next-gen network architecture and zonal controllers, simplifying wire harnesses, and introducing the R1 LFP battery, Mizuho sees RIVN reaching ~85k annual capacity at the Normal factory exiting 2024, with full 85k production set for 2025.
Due to planned line downs in 1H24, Mizuho cut estimated production for 2024 from 78K units to 68K. For the EDV, Mizuho expects to have ~65k of capacity at their Normal, IL factory. However, Mizuho expects the automaker to run only one production shift and therefore modestly raised 2024 EDV estimates to ~24K from 21K.
Rivian announced Tuesday that they would embrace TSLA's North America Charging Standard, following Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM), giving Rivian vehicles access to Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Supercharger network. Starting in 1H24, Rivian will offer a NACS adapter to allow current vehicles to charge on the TSLA network, with NACS charge ports becoming standard on R1S/R1T models beginning in 2025E.
Shares of RIVN are up 1.46% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.