Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Pound pauses after rallying on growing Bremain hopes

Published 21/06/2016, 05:01
© Reuters. A woman walks past money exchange shop in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
EUR/GBP
-
SOGN
-
STAN
-
DX
-
DXY
-

By Hideyuki Sano and Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The British pound eased against the dollar on Tuesday, a day after posting its biggest daily gain in 7 years on the back of opinion polls that swung in favour of the campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union.

Two opinion polls on Monday showed that the "Remain" camp has recovered some ground in Britain's European Union referendum debate.

The implied probability of a "Remain" vote in Thursday's referendum rose to around 78 percent after falling as low as 60 percent last Thursday, according to odds from gaming website Betfair. For the latest Reuters news on the referendum including full multimedia coverage, click

The British pound eased 0.1 percent in Asian trade to $1.4658, having pulled back from a three-week high of $1.4721 set on Monday. It rose 2.1 percent on Monday, its biggest daily gain since late 2008.

"The market is reacting to every twist in opinion polls but trading is becoming choppy because people are avoiding taking big positions ahead of the poll. Our options desk was fairly quiet yesterday," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN).

"Polls seem to suggest support for 'Remain' is rising, but the truth is we won't now until we see the results," he said.

This is the third time the currency pair has tested the $1.47-48 band since May and a clear break of those levels could spark a wave of short-covering in the pound.

But traders also said any break may have to wait until the markets see the results of Thursday's referendum.

"Until then, there could be more ups and downs," said Masashi Murata, currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

The latest swing in opinion polls in favour of the "Remain" camp also adds to the risk of an especially sharp market reaction if the actual vote result, expected to reach markets on Friday morning in Asia, were to go the other way, Murata added.

"As a risk, we have to be on guard on the Tokyo morning of June 24... It could lead to a pretty serious situation if the result turns out to be 'Leave'," he said.

The implied volatility on pound options have fallen notably as investors see a diminishing chance of the "Leave" camp winning. The three-month volatility last stood at 13.3 percent , compared with a high of 18.5 percent last week.

The euro rose 0.5 percent against sterling to 77.31 pence (EURGBP=D4), regaining a bit of ground after setting a near three-week low of 76.925 pence (EURGBP=D4) on Monday.

Against the dollar, the euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1326 .

The dollar index <=USD> (DXY) stood at 93.582, holding above a one-month low of 93.425 hit earlier this month, as the market awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. local time (1400 GMT).

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 104.01 yen . Earlier on Tuesday, the dollar slipped to 103.58 yen, bringing the yen close to its 22-month high of 103.555 set last Thursday.

"At the root of the yen's strength lie diminishing yield gaps between Japan and the U.S. Since expectations of further easing in Japan have waned, Japanese exporters' bids tend to support the yen," said Koichi Yoshikawa, executive director of finance at Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) Bank.

After the yen's latest rise, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that Japan would respond to rapid currency moves in line with G7/G20 agreements, although the country would not intervene in the market so "easily".

© Reuters. A woman walks past money exchange shop in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

The dollar briefly fell from around 104.10 yen to 103.85 yen or so after Aso's comments, but later stabilised.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.