Investing.com -- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 16 lead times are tracking lower than previous models, according to a note from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on Tuesday.
The investment bank said that as of September 24, 11 days after pre-orders began, the average lead time for the iPhone 16 in the U.S. is 15.2 days, compared to 25.7 days for the iPhone 15 at the same point last year and 18 days for the iPhone 14.
Internationally, the trend is similar, with lead times averaging 16.3 days for the iPhone 16, down from 28.5 days for the iPhone 15.
Morgan Stanley analysts interpret this as a sign of improved supply. However, "while supply is improved, and we hear anecdotes of positive iPhone 16 demand, we still interpret these data points more cautiously," said Morgan Stanley.
The analysts note that lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models are significantly shorter than in past cycles.
The iPhone 16 Pro Max lead times are currently 25.5 days in the U.S., 18 days shorter than the iPhone 15 Pro Max. Similarly, the iPhone 16 Pro's lead times are 18.5 days, down from 21.5 days last Friday.
Despite the shorter lead times, Morgan Stanley cautions that these early data points don't yet have strong predictive power for the full sales cycle.
"The trajectory of iPhone 16 lead times is also closely resembling past cycles, with iPhone 16 lead times peaking 7 days after pre-orders started, similar to the last 6+ iPhone cycles," says Morgan Stanley.
The analysts believe there's a greater than 50% chance of iPhone build cuts in the coming weeks, which could potentially impact revenue in the December quarter.
While demand for the iPhone 16 remains positive, the analysts highlight that any potential build revisions could materialize in early-to-mid October, which could affect Apple's revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter.