Benzinga - Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick appeared on Benzinga PreMarket Prep on Friday to discuss the current state of the markets with Dennis Dick, Joel Elconin and Mitch Hoch.
What Happened: Known as one of the key market pundits for bullish indicators, Detrick said despite perceptions of risk worsening this month, he remains cautiously optimistic, pointing to various factors such as seasonal trends and historical performance data.
Detrick emphasized the importance of Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ARCA: XLF) levels, with the financial sector ETF hovering around the critical $30 mark, which was the high the ETF made before the financial crisis of 2008.
He said a weekly close below this level could signal further market deterioration — but, as the ETF is still trading above $30, Detrick suggested there is no need for panic just yet.
While investors are worried due to recent events, the strategist noted that March has historically been a time of market lows, followed by a rebound. Late March has seen better performance for stocks lately, and the trend could potentially continue if positive news emerges.
April has also been a strong month for the markets, particularly in pre-election years.
Detrick highlighted that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA: SPY) has been higher in April for 17 of the past 18 pre-election years since World War II, with an average gain of 3.5%.
While March has been weaker this year, Detrick believed the markets could still see strength in April if historical patterns hold.
And, despite fears of increased risk in the market, Detrick noted sentiment — and even more importantly expectations — are currently very low, citing the Bank of America global financial survey which revealed investor concerns at a 20-year high. The strategist said any positive news could potentially trigger a run in the markets.
Detrick also discussed the current state of gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
While he said he’s not investing in Bitcoin, he sees it as a liquidity function that could indicate the health of the market, saying the recent run in seen in cryptocurrency is directly tied to the regional banking crisis, as the very concept of crypto emerged in 2008, in light of the financial crisis.
See the video here (go to minute 35:18):
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