Benzinga - by Vandana Singh, Benzinga Editor.
In support of expectations for Eli Lilly And Company’s (NYSE:LLY) tripeptide, BMO Capital Markets is tracking weekly Mounjaro, Zepbound, GLP-1 category TRx (total prescriptions), and NRx (new prescriptions).
The analyst models $12.78 billion for the fiscal year 2024 tripeptide revenues.
Mounjaro, for diabetes, scripts grew to 313,019 TRx (+5.4% WoW); Zepbound, for weight loss, was 56,095 (+11.8% WoW).
Overall, the incretin market grew +3.3% WoW, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro growth. In line with commentary from the fourth quarter 2023 earnings, Mounjaro is back on the FDA shortage list for some doses into March 2024; accordingly, we expect WoW variability in the near term.
Soon after Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter earnings, BMO Capital noted that the Wall Street estimates once again underestimated tirzepatide growth as demand continues to outpace supply. BMO raised the price target from $710 to $865.
Mounjaro TRx: Total weekly scripts increased to 313,019 from 297,048 last week (+5.4% WoW), or 16.3M scripts annualized.
Paid scripts include covered $25 copay card scripts, but virtually all are paid as the free access program has ended.
Mounjaro NRx: New weekly scripts were up +4.6% WoW to 194,021 from 185,534.
Zepbound TRx were again up meaningfully, to 56,095 from 50,183 last week (+11.8% WoW), following the YE23 launch.
Incretin market trends: There was a +3.3% increase across the broader incretin market, with WoW increases for Ozempic (+1.5%), Mounjaro (+5.4%), Wegovy (+2.1%), Rybelsus (+1.8%), and Zepbound (+11.8%).
BMO said if the growth rate of the first year following Ozempic’s approval adjusted by 85% is used, Mounjaro scripts grew faster than adjusted Ozempic growth. However, recent months have closed this gap.
Price Action: LLY shares are down 1.16% at $731.59 on the last check Monday.
Photo via Company
Latest Ratings for LLY
| Feb 2022 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | |
| Feb 2022 | Mizuho | Maintains | Buy | |
| Jan 2022 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight |
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.