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ConocoPhillips posts Q2 miss but raises full-year production guidance

Published 03/08/2023, 22:50
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ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) reported its Q2/23 results today, with EPS of $1.84 coming in below the consensus estimate of $2.00. The EPS fell from $3.91 in Q2/22, primarily due to lower prices partially offset by increased volumes.

The company delivered record company and Lower 48 production of 1,805 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) and 1,063 MBOED, respectively.

“We achieved record production and increased our full-year production guidance for the second consecutive quarter. We executed an agreement to purchase the remaining 50% interest in Surmont and further progressed our global LNG strategy,” said CEO Ryan Lance.

For Q3, the company expects production in the range of 1.78-1.82 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). For the full-year, production is now expected in the range of 1.80-1.81 MMBOED (vs. prior 1.78-1.80 MMBOED).

Following the earnings announcement, Citi reiterated its Buy rating and a $200 price target on the company. According to Citi, there has been an upward adjustment in year-over-year volume growth, increasing from +3% to +4% at the midpoint. “We think performance in the Lower 48 (particularly Permian) is driving the difference. Capex guidance is unchanged, as are shareholder distributions of $11 B,” mentioned Citi.

Roth MKM reiterated its Buy rating and $118 price target on the stock, highlighting several positive factors, including the company's strong balance sheet, a well-diversified asset portfolio across international markets, lower production declines compared to its peers, consistent low-single-digit production growth, and robust returns of capital to shareholders, which exceed 30% of cash flow from operations.

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