Citi analysts believe the U.S. data center-related power load will jump from ~21.4 GW in 2023 to ~52.0 GW in 2030.
AI-driven power demand has captured the spotlight recently, and the bank feels the challenge now is separating potential from hype and putting the trend within the larger macro context.
"Leveraging modeling by Citi’s Technology/Telecom teams, we forecast datacenters adding 31 GW to U.S. power load growth through 2030, which drives ~3.8bcfd of incremental demand for natural gas," they explained.
"While positive, the long-term bull case for U.S. gas still primarily rests upon LNG exports. In the bull case, the incremental call on U.S. gas could be ~20bcfd by 2030."
However, Citi states that this ignores a key risk: a potential LNG supply glut.
"Even accounting for datacenter-driven gas demand globally, Citi Commodities forecasts the need to curtail 8-9 bcfd [billion cubic feet per day] of LNG volumes in 2028-30, with U.S. facilities potentially shouldering the majority," adds the bank.