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Chewy investor day underwhelms, 'not thesis changing' says analysts

Published 15/12/2023, 14:06
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CHWY
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Online pet retailer Chewy's (NYSE:CHWY) shares are up more than 3% ahead of the open on Friday, a day after the company held an investor day, with Wall Street analysts providing a mixed reaction to the event.

The company reportedly discussed key initiatives across health, retail, international, operations, and updated its financial framework and long-term targets.

BofA analysts maintained an Underperform rating and $15 price target on the stock following the investor day, stating that the targets Chewy unveiled at the event were largely underwhelming.

"Overall, we think targets underwhelmed investor expectations, with Chewy targeting just HSD% long-term growth (vs. industry at 5-7% CAGR) and 10%+ EBITDA margins, though relatively limited improvement in OPEX (+3pts potential leverage) and seemingly a long-time horizon on gross margin expansion," analysts said.

JMP Securities maintained an Outperform rating and a $28 price target on the stock. Analysts said management described the financial profile of the company as being at an inflection point, and they expect an average 15% annual adjusted EBITDA flow-through in FY24 and beyond.

"We believe updated long-term targets were slightly below to in line with expectations, particularly on LT, adjusted EBITDA margin targets," analysts said. "We did not view the analyst day as thesis changing and walked away impressed with its improving operational efficiencies, driven by automation initiatives, and consistent cohort behavior driving predictable LTV/CAC trends."

Evercore ISI analysts were slightly more positive following the event, saying that overall, they came away with greater clarity on the
key drivers supporting the next 700bps of EBITDA Margin expansion.

"We continue to like the story longer term as new growth initiatives like Health, Ads, other pet services, and international expansion starts to scale, and valuations may well start to look interesting if we start to see more meaningful EBTIDA Margin ramp-up," analysts said, who kept an In line rating and $19 price target on the stock.

"Near term, we remain on the sidelines as the muted Pet industry outlook continues to put a damper on user growth, which we think is likely to persist into next year," they added.

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